Two words: GAMBLER'S FALLACY.

Look it up...

No its Math, google for it cuz u missed it at school while u were sleeping

Yes there's a sub part of Maths called probability.

1% chance doesn't equal to 3 legendaries out of 300 pulls in Probability. Yes, I study maths in that particular area. :)

Than you seem o sleep at ur university as well.

Gamblers Fallacy means, when u have used 318 blue shards u think the 319th MUST be a legendary cuz now the percentage has increasd so much that there cant be another result.

But what we have here is the Substantivelaw of large numbers. If u repeat a random experiment often enough u will reach a quote, in this case 16% epics, 1% legendaries. 

Or in a more simple example for you: If u are throwing a coin often enough, u will reach a quote close to 50% for heads/tails.

319 repeats are a lot of repeats, but the resultquote is far away from the promised quote of plarium.

But hey dont worry, at least u are able to google so u can try on faking that u r smart in ur own rude trolling way! ;)

319 samples at 1% probability is still a 4% chance of a 0 outcome. 1 in 25 isn't that unlikely. However, it shouldn't be possible to open more than 220 without getting a legendary since the mercy system would at that point make a legendary a certainty on the next ancient shard.

Aaaah but at the scale of statistics, 300 is such a low number, and you're assuming that 300 count is calculated all on your account instead of the whole population of players.

Say it does give players a legendary in every 100th pulls, you think that 100th pull will be calculated per account? No the calculation is for the whole population, thus, the spread!

Say there's 100 people like you, each pulling 300 shards. That's 30,000 pulls, probability says there's a chance of 300 legendaries in that whole pull, my question do you really honestly think the spread of that 300 legendaries are spread equally among those 100 players?

So yes, GAMBLER'S FALLACY, because you think that you pulled enough shards, you think you deserve a legendary (or 3), while in reality the probability is not being counted per account, but as the whole population.

That's why there's people who got 2 legendaries in as less as 10 pulls, while others can pull hundreds of times without getting a single legendary.

As long as the whole population pull shows around 1% legendary population, the system doesn't care about the spread of the legendary.

My  epic  pull  came  pretty  close  to  stated  rate  in  the  100  or  so  shards my  son  and  is  pulled.      What  is  more  concerning  to  me  is  the  rate  of  dupe  crappy  rares  he  and  i  saw..almost  feels  like  the  game  is  saying  we  will  gibe you  double  epic/legenday  %  but  the  pool  of  rares  is  going  to  be  limited  to  the  crappy  ones...

Oooh yeah, I forgot about the mercy system...

I have talked about this 6 months ago,

TLDR it's called the Birthday Paradox.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem

Edit: I've looked up my calculation, if you have 10 unique legendary your chance of getting a dupe lego is 55%, and it will shoot up to 99% once you have 28 unique legendary

It  is  almost  impossible for  you  to  open  319  Ancients  with  out  a  Leggo.

Only  3  outcomes  here:

1  -  You  are  lying  thru  your  teeth  and  didn't open  319  Ancients.

2  -  You  did  get  Leggo,  but  it  was  a  Dupe  or  a  Leggo you  was  unhappy  about  which  caused  you  to  lie  in  your  Forum  Title.

3  -  You  are  experiencing an  unknown  bug  at  which  point  you  should  contact  Support  so  they can reimburse you.

The Game  has  a  Shard  Mercy  System.

It  changes  the  rates  to  100%  at  a  certain  point.

In  other  words,  you  are  guaranteed a  Leggo  once  you  reach  a  certain shard  pull  amount.

The  amount  is  220  Ancient  Shards.

If  you  are  Lucky,  You  get  Leggo  in  1  Shard.

If  you  are  Unlucky,  You  get  Leggo  in  220  Shard.

You  cant  go  beyond  that  amount  with  out  a  Leggo.

-  The  Leggo  can  be  Dupe.

-  The  Leggo  can  be  Leggo  you  dont  want.

-  The  Leggo  can  be  Bad  Leggo

But  a  Leggo  has  to  be  given.

Actually there is a 4th explanation, which would also explain why there is not such a simple thing  (30 mins work maximum) implemented like a counter for the mercy system.

I  don't understand what  you  mean.

Well,

out of 3 possible solutions you offer, 

2 of them are coming down to accusing the other user of lying

1 of them is shifting the blame to an unknown bug

at the same time you are just taking at face value that the mercy system is actually in place. 

If it is in place, why does Plarium not add a counter, which is 30 minutes work for a developper and proves once ad forever that the mercy system is working?

What evidence do you have that CrazyMaria is lying and Plarium is telling the truth?

If we get down to boolean logic, we have the following options

1.) A & B are both telling the truth    -> not possible here as they are contradicting themselves (only exception would be a bug like you mentioned, but that would also mean pity system is not working)

2.) A is telling the truth, B is not         -> possible that there have been a leggo or less than 319 shards pulled

3.) B is telling the truth, A is not          -> possible that there is no pity system

4.) Both are not telling the truth         -> possible that there is no pity system and less than 200 shards have been pulled.

From these 4 options, I would rate 1 as not possible.

You do entirely ignore option 3.

Got any good epics? Some might be eve more usefull for you if you need a specific role. Booking them up is cheaper/easier etc

Also, you cant pull 319 ancients without a legendary. The mercy system prevents that. If it somehow failed for you, then you should contact plarium and report a bug

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqydLWxcH3A&ab_channel=ChoflyElite

i

Nerds  found  the  Mercy  System  by  Data mining  the  game  behind  the  scenes.

Than  players  confronted  the  game  by  asking  them  about  the  Mercy  System.

Than  the  game  decided  it  was  in  their  best  interest  to admit  a  Mercy  System  existed.

Than  the  game  decided  to  add  the   Mercy  System to  the  Portal  so  people  could  see  it.

How  do  I  know  Mercy  System  is  in  place?

Because  I  have  triggered it.

And  I  can  say  with  confidence the  Mercy  System  in  this  game  is  garbage  compared  to  all  other  cacha  games  I  ever  played.

Ok first bad luck with shards, than I felt to post that to get rid of my anger and than I got trolled that I´m dumb and now that I´m a lier. 

What comes next? Am I a witch and need to be burned?

Very cool, really very cool thx.

i

I agree with you, that the mercy system is garbage...it should be at half the number of shards pulled. 

Getting a leggo between 200 and 220 does not prove a system like this existence so it is strong evidence. 

That stil leaves the question....Why no counter?

And having some code within a program does not mean this code is actually used....just saying... I know that this is kind of conspiracy...but to my own numbers, I also pulled once until 237 before getting a leggo....so there might be an error in my records...there stil remains the doubt of it...

Thx for that hint :) Yeah, some epics were nice like the Stag Knight, most werent. But that wasnt my point, I was just frustrated that the result was closer on the original quote(8%, 0,5%) than the promised boosted quote. Anyway, didnt invest money for the shards so it´s just frustrating but not a drama.

Yeah a counter would be nice, but the system wrks a way in which a counter makes no sense or wouldnt work.

Plarium showed that they really plan what Champions u´ll get and after how many shards u get them with the Countress Lix Event.

Theres an algorythm which gives u a championrewardlist for using shards.

So the game allready knows which champions you will get with the next x shards, like in the event.

It´s just sad, that the boost quote is just a fiction to motivate players to spend money into the game. Maybe that was my poblem why I got no legendary ^^

Must say I've seen nothing to prove that there is any multiplier at play in events or even the mercy system. I've got as many good pulls outside events than in.

Duplicates are a big problem though on one hand - I've had numerous boltsmiths and other generally awful dwarves as examples -  but have had (I think) 5 or 6 apothecaries now, 4 galeks, 4 kaels as examples. That's great as they're some of the more useful ones but they still end up often being books. 

At least in this event I finally got a preserver to let me finish my Rhazin fusion 😀

There are just too many really poor (or so niche they're pretty useless) pulls at all levels to be honest, even legendaries. But that's the way this game is setup.