I cashed in 6 Holy bonds yesterday in your 2x chance of getting a Grade V (Gold) Guardian.
How many Gold G's did I get - 0, 0 from 6 tries
The chances of that happening are 1.6% - extremely low - providing of course that I really did have a 50/50 chance of getting a Gold from each Holy Bond cashed - I now wonder.
I had both experiences. The first time I opened 6 and got 5 orange. I was happy as a child at Christmas. Next time I opened 6 and got... none orange. I was on fire that day.
Now, I wait for the events that ensure me an orange guardian or where I can change epics for holies bonds. for me, that´s the safer way to go ahead with guardians.
Have a nice game and may good luck be on your side!
the 50% probability is the worste joke of plarium....
everytime i hear complains about eveeryone (not only me) that players that have many orange guardians, get less and less orange guardians when they open them.... one open yesterday 14 holy bonds and gave him 14 pink guardians, what's the probability of that happening during the 50% probabiltiy?
0,5 ^ 14 = 0,006%
I once had 46 epic bonds without a purple guardian: 0,78%
That was during an event, the first bond after the event gave a purple guardian.
I don't want to have that random chance, if you say 50% then give me 50%.
If you say 10% for a purple guardian with an epic bond then give me a purple guardian every 10th epic bond.
But you have to make a special event for that and then you always offer guardians which most people doesn't need.
The random number generator of plarium seems to be ... strange sometimes.
Last week during the event i opened 4 holy bonds: 3 x purple pan offense, 1 x golden pan offense....
Some types of guardians are dropped far more than others.
Elysian and emporia guardians are found more often than other types, the chances for resource and off/def guardians are less.
Is this the same for other people too?
Igu said:
0,5 ^ 14 = 0,006%
Is this the same for other people too?
Wrong, completely wrong.
By the way, the percentage of a "sacred bond" that you get a V (orange) quality guardian is 25%, if you open it during the offer, the percentage increases to 50%.
The mistake is wanting to believe that the links you open are treated as a "whole" and it is not so:
- you open a link 50% and that's it.
- you open another link 50%.
-open another link 50%.
- and so on to infinity.
Things are as they are and never as we would like them to be.
Error, completamente equivocado.
El tanto por cierto de que en un "vinculo sagrado" te salga un guardian calidad V ( naranja ) es 25%, si lo abres durante la oferta el porcentage aumenta hasta el 50%.
El error es querer creer que los vinculos que abres se traten como un "todo" y no es asi:
- abres un vinculo 50% y ya esta.
- abres otro vinculo 50%.
-abres otro vinculo 50%
- y asi hasta el infinito.
Las cosas son como son y nunca como nos gustaria que fueran.
Elias said:
Igu said:
0,5 ^ 14 = 0,006%
Is this the same for other people too?
Wrong, completely wrong.
FORTUNA T.I.A. said his buddy got 14 purple guardians with 14 holy bonds during 50% event.
My math is a little rusty, but i'm pretty sure that i am correct.
Probability of A occuring 14 time(s) = 0.5^14 = 6.103515625E-5
Mathematical formulas cannot be applied here.
You never read or heard: Not always 2 + 2 = 4.
Whenever "fortune" comes into play we cannot trust the statistics, as FORTUNA said of 14 open 14 quality IV "purple" ( 0% ) and as VANESAMEI said of 6 open 5 quality V "orange" ( 83% ).
Which statistics are we left with ?
Aqui no se pueden aplicar formulas matematicas.
Nunca leiste u oiste: No siempre 2 + 2 = 4.
Siempre que entra en juego la "fortuna" no podemos fiarnos de las estadisticas, como dijo FORTUNA de 14 abiertos 14 calidad IV "purpuras" ( 0% ) y como dijo VANESAMEI de 6 abiertos 5 calidad V "naranja" ( 83% ).
¿ Con que estadisticas nos quedamos ?
2 + 2 is always 4.
We're talking about probabilities here, and statisitical formulas are of course valid when Plariums says the probability is 50% to get a golden guardian when opening a holy bond during the event.
And with a probability of 50% the chance to get 14 purple guardians is 1 : 6.103515625E-5.
This is not impossible, just very unlikely.
Igu said:
2 + 2 is always 4.
We're talking about probabilities here, and statisitical formulas are of course valid when Plariums says the probability is 50% to get a golden guardian when opening a holy bond during the event.
And with a probability of 50% the chance to get 14 purple guardians is 1 : 6.103515625E-5.
This is not impossible, just very unlikely.
It's possible and most likely, another thing is that we don't like it.
Plarium says : if you open 1 sacral link the probability of it being V quality increases to 50%.
It doesn't tell you that 1 in 2 links will be V-quality.
For that it has another event that says : 1st guardian 25%, 2nd guardian 50%, 3rd guardian 100%. In this event it assures you 1 guardian V-quality, and I know from players that it was the first one and they saved opening the other 2.
Sorry I captured it in Italian but I think it's understandable.
Es posible y de lo mas probable, otra cosa es que no nos guste.
Plarium dice : si abres 1 vinculo sacro la probabilidad de que sea calidad V aumenta hasta el 50%.
No te dice que de cada 2 vinculos 1 sera calidad V.
Para eso tiene otro evento que dice : 1º guardian 25%, 2º guardian 50%, 3º guardian 100%. En este evento te asegura 1 guardian calidad V, y se de jugadores que fue el primero y se ahorraron abrir los otros 2.
Perdona que la captura la hice en italiano pero creo se entiende.
This will be my last message in this thread.
The chance to get a golden guardians is 50% during the event, correct?
The chance to get a head when flipping a coin is 50%, correct?
Elias said:
Mathematical formulas cannot be applied here.
You never read or heard: Not always 2 + 2 = 4.
Whenever "fortune" comes into play we cannot trust the statistics, as FORTUNA said of 14 open 14 quality IV "purple" ( 0% ) and as VANESAMEI said of 6 open 5 quality V "orange" ( 83% ).
Which statistics are we left with ?
Aqui no se pueden aplicar formulas matematicas.
Nunca leiste u oiste: No siempre 2 + 2 = 4.
Siempre que entra en juego la "fortuna" no podemos fiarnos de las estadisticas, como dijo FORTUNA de 14 abiertos 14 calidad IV "purpuras" ( 0% ) y como dijo VANESAMEI de 6 abiertos 5 calidad V "naranja" ( 83% ).
¿ Con que estadisticas nos quedamos ?
a ver, elias no me vendas lo invendible....
de 14 intentos cero, eso bate todos los records de probabilidades...
vanesamei no se en que server estara, si no esta en el mio, es irrelevante, esta en nuestro server? cuantos guardaines tiene naranja? lo digo apra comprar como tu ahora quieres comparar....
yo se lo que veo a diario y si una persona abre 14 sacros y le sale 14 fusias algo esta mal. y mas durante el 50% de probailidad
las matemáticas no engañan y las probabilidades de que ocurra eso son complicadas....
resume: maths dont lie.... the probability of 14 sacros and none orange is quick rare
FORTUNA yo no vendo nada, si lo hiciera me aseguraría que más del 50% fueran "naranjitas" para teneros enganchados y comprando porque en eso tienes razón : cuánto mejor es lo que vendes más vendes.
Por eso digo como jugador que una cosa es lo que nos gustaría y otra lo que realmente es, y cuando hay que depender de la "fortuna" recordemos que la lotería siempre les toca a los mismos. Y como moderador digo que el sistema en este caso funciona bien.
FORTUNA I don't sell anything, if I did I would make sure that more than 50% were "oranges" to keep you hooked and buying because you are right about that : the better you sell the more you sell.
That's why I say as a player that one thing is what we would like and another thing is what it really is, and when we have to depend on "fortune" let's remember that the lottery is always the same. And as a moderator I say that the system in this case works well.
las matemáticas son matemáticas.
Elias
I am incredible disturbed and sad to read your replies. It typifies what can be so horribly wrong with Plarium's service to it's customers.
Your reply asks us to believe that established, proven scientific fact, does not apply in Plarium's world.
You tell us 2 + 2 does not always equal 4.
That scientific proven statistical theory does not apply.
Well your customers have news for you, when dealing with straight forward mathematically situations 2 + 2 DOES always = 4.
When Plarium says you have a 50% chance of getting a Gold Guardian when you open a Holy bond and you do not get one after 6 tries in a row the chances of that happening are just 1 in 64 FACT.
When Plarium says you have a 30% chance of getting a blue or purple Guardian when you open a Epic bond and you do not get one after 20 tries in a row the chances of that happening are just 1 in 1,253 FACT.
Both of these situations have occurred to me over the last week.
The chances of that happening are so small that the ONLY conclusion I can reach is that like your earlier replies, Plarium just thinks it's customers are there to be treated like idiots, as milch cows and are there to be lied to and to be taken advantage of.
You apparantly feel it does not matter if you give us one untruth after the other.
Do you not wonder why so many players are leaving?
Do you really not understand the correlation?
I too find Elias's responses disappointing.
However further to Grim's prior post, there is an alternative explanation, one we are all so familiar with!
That Sparta has a programming error in the way Guardians are created when cashing bonds.
That somehow instead of the 'advertised percent chance' being independently applied as each bond is cashed, the code sometimes 'gets stuck in a groove' and repeatedly creates the same Guardian type as multiple bonds are cashed.
Discussion of experiences amongst COA members lends some support to this possibility - perhaps this post should be moved to bugs!
Everything that is being talked about here brings to mind when the general was implemented and some players were buying chests, the forum was full of complaints:
- I bought X chests and almost all of them have the same object.
- I bought X chests and all the items that came out already had them.
Or remember the so-called "wheel of fortune"
GRIM_REAPER please read my answer to FORTUNA.
Todo lo que se esta hablando aqui me trae a la memoria cuando se implemento el general y algunos jugadores compraban cofres, el foro se lleno de reclamaciones:
- he comprado X cofres y casi todos tienen el mismo objeto.
- he comprado X cofres y todos los objetos que me han salido ya los tenia.
O recordar la llamada "rueda de la fortuna"
GRIM_REAPER haz el favor de leerte mi respuesta a FORTUNA.
