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A Year's (almost) Worth of Shards

A Year's (almost) Worth of Shards

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Jan 4, 2022, 01:2601/04/22
06/20/19
2181

A Year's (almost) Worth of Shards

I kept records of all of the shards I opened for most of 2021 and thought this would be a good time to give a quick summery. I’m not trying to make any statements but will make some observations. I only opened shards during 2x, 10x, guaranteed champ, or get one get another free events, so it would be difficult to go back and break down the 2x vs other (not 2x) numbers. I could do it but it would mean spending several hours rather than 10 minutes. 

My records for ancient shards begin Feb 26 so I most likely opened some in January as well. From Feb 26 through EOY 2021 I opened 996 ancient shards. I got 862 (86.5%) rares, 120 (12.0%) epics, and 16 (only counting 14 (see note) for 1.4%) legendary champs.  

Note: Two of the legendary champs were “free” so total number of champs is 998 rather than the total 996 shards opened. 

The % of epics is about ½ way between expected for 2x events and other (non 2x) events. The % of leggos is greater than expected even if all shards had been opened during 2x events (and that doesn’t include the 2 freebies). 

My records for voids begin Feb 13. Through EOY 2021 I opened 299 void shards. I got 257 (85.9%) rare, 41 (13.7%) epic, and 1 (0.3%) leggo champs. Again, the % epic is solid. While the % leggo looks bad, it’s easily explainable. A required sample size increases as the rarity of possible outcomes increases.  If the drop rate of a legendary is 0.5% then the sample size must be large enough to ensure enough legendries drop for the sample to be representative. A solid sample might require 1K to 2K observations. To help see this, the one legendary I drew was pulled on the 176th shard. Pulling a leggo after pulling 175 is hardly out of the norm. And not pulling another in the next 122 is as well, not outside the norm. (It was a dup Visix however lol, my only void leggo from shard for the year.) So theoretically I could pull just one more the next time I open a few and be not only in the norm, but even above average. 

My records for sacreds begin Jan 29. Through EOY 2021 I opened 86 sacred shards. I got 78 (90.7%) epics, and 10 (2 free so only counting 8, or 9.3%) leggo champs. Again, these numbers are all very average. 

That’s 27 leggo champs from shards, not to mention another 9 leggos from fusions and Ninja and Aleks. Of these 38 leggos, 8 were dups. But I got some top ranked champs as well.
Shazar, Nethril, Tyrant, BeK, Draco, Rae, Trunda, Saito, Ma’shalled, Sethallia, just to name a few.  

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Jan 4, 2022, 05:4101/04/22
01/04/20
1703

Wow, I might keep track of mine this year. Thanks for the idea, and well done. But....

Draco and Mac Salad? I'm banning you. 

Jan 4, 2022, 09:3501/04/22
06/20/19
2181

Ban me all you want.  I guess I'll have to hang out with Draco.  We will talk about you!