120 NM top chests, your expected value is 2.4 sacreds. Basically you ran 1-2 sacreds under that value, which is going to happen quite a bit. 

The value for legendary books is 4.8, and you got 3 which means you were unlucky there.

With regards to brutal drop rates, I'm not 100% but you did run over value on epics and ancients, for what it's worth.

From the NM chests your void value is ~4.8, brutal comes to 1.7, so usually can expect 6.5. You were unlucky there.

For the brutal chests your value in epic books is roughly .85, and from those nightmare chests your value is usually 7.2, which means combined value of roughly 8, meaning you ran 4 books over. 

For ancients I think your value is about 8 from those brutals, and about 17 ancients from the nightmare chests, which means you ran 100% over value on those shards. 

You guys were unlucky with sacreds/legendaries/voids and very over on epic books/ancient shards. 

Anyway, it's usually the simplest explanation that is the best one, and you were provably lucky in some areas and unlucky in others. Also this is far, far, far, far, far too small of a sample size to have any sort of confidence level in to prove anything other than variance.

The result looks pretty normal to me. I do not expect any better in NM chests.

I did same test on me for 1 month - same results - I am unlucky on sacred/void 

Repeated the test on 5 people for 10 days - same results - we all are unlucky on sacred/void shards and red books :(

What to do next? test on 100 people to discover that they are unlucky on sacred/voids shards too???

youd people should seriosly avoid me- seems that every1 that have to do with me became really unlucky :))

I can belive unluck for some period ; but usually the easiest explanation is also the right one 

So , for me, is not that we all are unlucky but chances for sacred and void on NM chests are dramatically reduced :(

Sure that are people that are getting sacred/void - even if chances drop to 0,01% still somwhere will be some1 that will get it :)

But now I am 1000% convinced that Plarium screwed the frops from NM :(

True that almost every day we are getting ancient shards , but to be honest I would prefere more sacred/void shards :)

Probably you got UNM chests and because of that results seems normals on those NM chests 

For me that I am getting NM chests the results are not normal.

And neither for my clan mates that are getting the same NM chests for some time already 

I do cb from Hard to UNM and I am getting two chests from Brutal to UNM everyday. On a good day, I can also get two chests from Hard.

Warsong, we don't need a new thread every 6 days while your last thread is still on the first page. 

That said: Clan Boss rewards haven't been changed. The Community Managers have said it, the Content Creators I linked said it, it has been verified by those content creators.

Even in this thread, Dave has given you the expected versus actual numbers up there, you get luck in some areas, unlucky in others, it is how randomness works. 

To Quote or Community Manager from anaother thread, the Clan Boss rewards have not been changed.

Sorry for openning new thread; next time I will put the results on older one 

In my country we have a word : " If something look like poopies , smell like one and have the same colour than probably is a poopies"

No matter how i look on results i cannot agree with CM and CC - it is impossible to have all unlucky players on my "team"

As i mentioned before - I understand luck role , RNG ... but comparing results on longer period of time ( 1 month) or larger number pf people should eliminate the "luck" influence .

If from 6 accounts 1 is not getting and all other get - is luck or badluck

When 6 accounts ( different players, different countries, different....everything) and results are still poor than is hard to blame luck

Still we shall continue to monitor the results and we shall see after 20 days :)

Edited by moderator. - Harbs

Removed swears. 

I will caution you again that this is going to end up being way too small of a sample size but I do wish you the best of luck and hope you get all the sacreds. :)

Stop doing NM and hit UNM, problem solved.  

Sample size of 10 days and 6 people.... lmao

I was thinking to jump directly on Hydra :)

Sample size = 120 NM chests and more than 85 others ; so i dont think that is so small to get an impresion 

Unfortunatelly i cant do it on 6 months and 100.000 peoples :(

I would love for someone with a better stats background to jump in but I would be shocked if any sort of results below 5,000 chests would represent an accurate/semi accurate sample size. When drop rates for the best drops are as low as they are, it's very, very easy to go a long time being under your expected value for them. 

The thing that messes up your calculations is that people are inherently bad at remembering successful results. It might very well be true that the numbers you gave are exactly those that occurred; much more likely, though, is that your friends reported the instances in which they did *not* get a "good" reward accurately, however, they failed to report the correct "good" rewards.

In other words - yes, maybe out of your 120 samples you actually did only get one sacred. But if even one person forgot to report getting one, your degree of error is already 50%. And that quickly gets worse.

If you truly wanted to get a representative sample, you'd need to use an unbiased reporting mechanism. I don't know if there are any tools that can interpret the data being stored/transmitted like that, but if there were, I'm sure it would tell you ... exactly what the datamined info tells you.

This thread in a nuthsell: The numbers the CB dropped now are counted, and they are compared to "I think it was better 2-3 month ago". 

For 10 days , myself and other 5 clan mates put the results on discord - each and every day .

So is not possible for them to reposrt just bad results ; was big celebration when we saw the sacred shard drop 

So i am sure that figures are accurate and nothing good was forgoten .

Unfortunatelly is difficult to get datas from more people ; I only hope that also those 5 guys will continue to provide datas for the rest of 20 days ( to have 1 month report on 6 accounts )

You are right ; 2-3 months ago I didnt make a clear statistics on drops .

But I can tell you 4 sure that during 1 month i was getting like 2-3-4 sacred shards , 6-7 void and 10-15 ancient shards ( on each account).

Now I didnt saw a sacred shard for.... more than a month ( on any account)!

So i do not need to be an expert to tell you that now is worst than 2-3 months ago .

I started to do counts when I start to realize that drops are much lower ( from quality point of view).

That's how randomness works though, Warsong! 0_0

You have good stretches and you have bad stretches. Plain and simple, had Plarium changed the code, there would be a ton of CCs telling us so.

And they have come on here and said a couple times now, no changes.