I can share my results...

on Server 1 i received 1/4

on Server 2 i received 5/6

on Server 3 i received 5/6..

and i will repeat the same , is a little bit also the luck...there are players which received just grade V , and there are players which received none , but for the majority of the players the event is working fine , 

and from my point of view is a big opportunity  that with 20 epic bonds you can receive 1 holy bond , which before of this event was more hard to get a holy bond  , so i'm very grateful to Plarium for this event  !
I wish a good day and good game to everyone !

DJ Moody said:

You can see within the log how much luck different accounts can get. 

There is an account that only got 1 Grade V from 10 bonds, which has just under a 1% probability of happening. It actually got 7 failed in a row, which is 128 to 1 against. And another got 1 from 6 which is quite unlucky.

On the flip side one got really lucky, with 6 out of 7 (less than 5% proability), and another 6 from 8.

Even with some extreme bad luck, the drop rate still averaged out to pretty much 50% which is what it is supposed to be (double the normal 25% drop rate).

I know it will suck if you happened to get back luck but at least you can know it is just bad luck, the event isn't rigged or broken and your luck will eventually change,

*** EDIT ***

I found the drop information from the prior events and added it to the screenshot.

It means the sample size is a whopping 204 bonds. 

Note I lined up the accounts for for instance all the results for "Account 9" are for the same account in the different events. So you can track how an accounts luck has tracked over time. Interesting to note that NONE of the accounts have either sustained really good luck, or really bad luck, even over just 3 events.

*** EDIT ***

This is great to know. I think there is something more into this. I think what needs to be investigated is the theories I have been playing with. 

Certain champions have a higher probability rate at a certain castle level.

If you open a holy bond at a castle under level 45 the first champion is almost always a grade 5 Dryad. Castle level has a higher proportional to certain  champion chance. This is true if you look at castle 13. 

DJ Moody said:

Thought this might be useful.

Grade V drop log from this double drop rate event.

Its a pretty big sample size. I kept logs for the last two events also and got around 50% (both just under 50%).

I know people can get pretty bad luck and conclude that the drops are rigged. Hopefully this is evidence you need to have some confidence the event does run correctly as advertised.

You can see within the log how much luck different accounts can get. 

There is an account that only got 1 Grade V from 10 bonds, which has just under a 1% probability of happening. It actually got 7 failed in a row, which is 128 to 1 against. And another got 1 from 6 which is quite unlucky.

On the flip side one got really lucky, with 6 out of 7 (less than 5% proability), and another 6 from 8.

Even with some extreme bad luck, the drop rate still averaged out to pretty much 50% which is what it is supposed to be (double the normal 25% drop rate).

I know it will suck if you happened to get back luck but at least you can know it is just bad luck, the event isn't rigged or broken and your luck will eventually change,

*** EDIT ***

I found the drop information from the prior events and added it to the screenshot.

It means the sample size is a whopping 204 bonds. 

Note I lined up the accounts for for instance all the results for "Account 9" are for the same account in the different events. So you can track how an accounts luck has tracked over time. Interesting to note that NONE of the accounts have either sustained really good luck, or really bad luck, even over just 3 events.

*** EDIT ***

last time u said drop rate was lower

then u brought up coin toss ...

not a pretty big sample size ,but even a normal one should be at least 1000 accounts for a game like this to consider 

 last time it was just the opposite

everyone trying to figure things out try to do some little experiment,thats just it,here for example,in ur case what if,instead of 13 accounts u  tried 11 ,with 2 less accounts,lets say account number 7 and 13..then what would have happened ? then u would say well according to my calculations the numbers are much lower percentage than what plarium says... 

thats just it with calculations,2 less account and/or 2 more and whole things goes down to hell  .        for me i got 7 out of 13 this time,2 out 8 last time and 6 out of 10 time before that.i didnt calculate to be honest.it is whatvr it is each time for me.im fine with it

i can say that im very happy u agreed the percentages were right at least.

Jeez - haters gotta hate right.

As it happens you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

not a pretty big sample size ,but even a normal one should be at least 1000 accounts for a game like this to consider

Why just pick a number randomly out of a hat. You could have gone and read up about sample sizes. Personally if was going to degenerate what someone else said, I would at least want to get my facts straight.

If you stick the results above into a half decent bin-nominal calculator you will get a z factor. There are plenty of tables that will allow you to convert that into a confidence level. 

A 95% confidence level is what most polls work off. That is why the polls do get it wrong sometimes, cause to keep the cost down they don't take particularly big sample sizes and the chance of error is higher.

A 99% confidence level is what a lot of scientific study would treat as adequate to draw conclusions from.

As it happens the above sample size gives wellL above a 99% confidence level. It is very much large enough to draw firm conclusions from (and it's no co-incidence it gives a result within 0.5% of the actual drop rate). 

Go follow the maths, you might learn something. If you are gonna play random drop games, its actually pretty useful stuff to know.

In ur case what if,instead of 13 accounts u tried 11 ,with 2 less accounts,lets say account number 7 and 13..then what would have happened ?

This is absolute nonsense.

If you bias the random sample by removing the two most outlying results from one end of the tail you will ALWAYS ruin your sample and it will no longer be random and unbaised. You can't just ignore the results you don't like and then draw conclusions. Surely this is basic school level of understanding of surveying/sampling?

Why do I get the feeling this is personal and had the exact same post being written by a different person your response would have been completely utterly different?

DJMoody,

Thank you for your post!  Prior to the last two events I was definitely in the "Bad Luck" category.  The last three events have been fair with my percentage of LvL 4 to LvL 5 champs just slightly better than 50%.  Out of 6 tries (3 each event) with two holy bonds each I received a LvL 4 and a LvL 5 five times and two LvL 5s on one.  Odds may be slightly skewed.  One of the attempts was during a guaranteed LvL 5 for three attempts.  Received the advertised guaranteed LvL 5 using only two bonds.  Was glad to save the third for the latest event

DJ Moody said:

Thought this might be useful.

Grade V drop log from this double drop rate event.

Its a pretty big sample size. I kept logs for the last two events also and got around 50% (both just under 50%).

I know people can get pretty bad luck and conclude that the drops are rigged. Hopefully this is evidence you need to have some confidence the event does run correctly as advertised.

You can see within the log how much luck different accounts can get. 

There is an account that only got 1 Grade V from 10 bonds, which has just under a 1% probability of happening. It actually got 7 failed in a row, which is 128 to 1 against. And another got 1 from 6 which is quite unlucky.

On the flip side one got really lucky, with 6 out of 7 (less than 5% proability), and another 6 from 8.

Even with some extreme bad luck, the drop rate still averaged out to pretty much 50% which is what it is supposed to be (double the normal 25% drop rate).

I know it will suck if you happened to get back luck but at least you can know it is just bad luck, the event isn't rigged or broken and your luck will eventually change,

*** EDIT ***

I found the drop information from the prior events and added it to the screenshot.

It means the sample size is a whopping 204 bonds. 

Note I lined up the accounts for for instance all the results for "Account 9" are for the same account in the different events. So you can track how an accounts luck has tracked over time. Interesting to note that NONE of the accounts have either sustained really good luck, or really bad luck, even over just 3 events.

*** EDIT ***

last time u said drop rate was lower

then u brought up coin toss ...

not a pretty big sample size ,but even a normal one should be at least 1000 accounts for a game like this to consider 

 last time it was just the opposite

everyone trying to figure things out try to do some little experiment,thats just it,here for example,in ur case what if,instead of 13 accounts u  tried 11 ,with 2 less accounts,lets say account number 7 and 13..then what would have happened ? then u would say well according to my calculations the numbers are much lower percentage than what plarium says... 

thats just it with calculations,2 less account and/or 2 more and whole things goes down to hell  .        for me i got 7 out of 13 this time,2 out 8 last time and 6 out of 10 time before that.i didnt calculate to be honest.it is whatvr it is each time for me.im fine with it

i can say that im very happy u agreed the percentages were right at least.

fURY said:

last time u said drop rate was lower

then u brought up coin toss ...

not a pretty big sample size ,but even a normal one should be at least 1000 accounts for a game like this to consider 

 last time it was just the opposite

everyone trying to figure things out try to do some little experiment,thats just it,here for example,in ur case what if,instead of 13 accounts u  tried 11 ,with 2 less accounts,lets say account number 7 and 13..then what would have happened ? then u would say well according to my calculations the numbers are much lower percentage than what plarium says... 

thats just it with calculations,2 less account and/or 2 more and whole things goes down to hell  .        for me i got 7 out of 13 this time,2 out 8 last time and 6 out of 10 time before that.i didnt calculate to be honest.it is whatvr it is each time for me.im fine with it

i can say that im very happy u agreed the percentages were right at least.

Making assumptions before investigating those assumptions is what we call being scientific. The best assumption anyone can and should make is that the drop rate is lower than advertised. In fact, the data does show that the percentage is lower than advertised, though slightly.

Seriously. In science, acceptable sample size is three. Bigger sample size doesn't translate to better results. But I would love to see you do this with1000 accounts. 

The honest thing you can do is to try and investigate if these results are true or not. And you can do this by doing your own investigation.

DJ Moody said:

Jeez - haters gotta hate right.

u might learn something. 

Why do I get the feeling this is personal and had the exact same post being written by a different person your response would have been completely utterly different?

u exactly know what i said if u are as scientific as u try to show with ur use of words

or ur kinda trying to be insulting with use of clever words

here on forum u said grade 5 rate was lower,it was just for that ! in that post, u used science as hostage too 

ah and lastly,last time u said drop rate was low using ur accounts,i was against it,u said it didnt u ? now that uv come forth and saying this feature is working properly i said im happy that u agreed percentages were right unlike last time that u scientifically proved it wasnt

BiohazarD said:

fURY said:

DJ Moody said:

Thought this might be useful.

Grade V drop log from this double drop rate event.

Its a pretty big sample size. I kept logs for the last two events also and got around 50% (both just under 50%).

I know people can get pretty bad luck and conclude that the drops are rigged. Hopefully this is evidence you need to have some confidence the event does run correctly as advertised.

You can see within the log how much luck different accounts can get. 

There is an account that only got 1 Grade V from 10 bonds, which has just under a 1% probability of happening. It actually got 7 failed in a row, which is 128 to 1 against. And another got 1 from 6 which is quite unlucky.

On the flip side one got really lucky, with 6 out of 7 (less than 5% proability), and another 6 from 8.

Even with some extreme bad luck, the drop rate still averaged out to pretty much 50% which is what it is supposed to be (double the normal 25% drop rate).

I know it will suck if you happened to get back luck but at least you can know it is just bad luck, the event isn't rigged or broken and your luck will eventually change,

*** EDIT ***

I found the drop information from the prior events and added it to the screenshot.

It means the sample size is a whopping 204 bonds. 

Note I lined up the accounts for for instance all the results for "Account 9" are for the same account in the different events. So you can track how an accounts luck has tracked over time. Interesting to note that NONE of the accounts have either sustained really good luck, or really bad luck, even over just 3 events.

*** EDIT ***

last time u said drop rate was lower

then u brought up coin toss ...

not a pretty big sample size ,but even a normal one should be at least 1000 accounts for a game like this to consider 

 last time it was just the opposite

everyone trying to figure things out try to do some little experiment,thats just it,here for example,in ur case what if,instead of 13 accounts u  tried 11 ,with 2 less accounts,lets say account number 7 and 13..then what would have happened ? then u would say well according to my calculations the numbers are much lower percentage than what plarium says... 

thats just it with calculations,2 less account and/or 2 more and whole things goes down to hell  .        for me i got 7 out of 13 this time,2 out 8 last time and 6 out of 10 time before that.i didnt calculate to be honest.it is whatvr it is each time for me.im fine with it

i can say that im very happy u agreed the percentages were right at least.

If you want to create 1000 accounts, level them all up and open a few dozen bonds on each, then come back and tell us the results I'm sure we'd all be happy to hear it :)  But for now we just have to make do with the data we have, and 200 holy bond spins is more than most people have done.  

uv always been unbiased,even if u were i respect u

so ill tell u what i know

first,u dnt need 1000 accounts exactly.as many as u can get to cooperate

second, u dnt create the accounts,u give forms to players to fill,here even asking each player what their result was would be okay,this also deletes the possibility of other factors being involved,like for example accounts logging in from same IP having an effect on the draws

third, u try to have a fixed set of numbers drawn in bonds,for example all accounts try to open 6 at a time(as u also get 3 back,this is an example).it goes under or beyond that,it in itself is another research.

Bio i can give u 100 more of these, but let me tell this to u. it wasnt an objection to research results.it was what i was saying the whole time

i honestly was happy that he at last came on this conclusion.i was clear about that

for me its always been whatvr it is,i hope this research also satisfies everyone elses so i dnt have to disagree with them too.as iv always said drops work the way they should

fURY said:

u exactly know what i said if u are as scientific as u try to show with ur use of words

or ur kinda trying to be insulting with use of clever word

here on forum u said grade 5 rate was lower,it was just for that ! in that post, u used science as hostage too 

ah and lastly,last time u said drop rate was low using ur accounts,i was against it,u said it didnt u ? now that uv come forth and saying this feature is working properly i said im happy that u agreed percentages were right unlike last time that u scientifically proved it wasnt

it was what i was saying the whole time

So where did I say the drop rate wasn't as stated by Plarium?

You didn't just make up a whole load of false statements about me did you?

I look forward to you posting a link to the thread that supports your statement or retracting it.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

PS this is the last big thread about the subject I could find:

https://plarium.com/forum/en/stormfall-age-of-war/51_game-discussion/192638_holy-summoning-bond-chance/

So you make your statement based on a thread where:

In relation to 50% rate I very clearly said:

Btw I am not saying it isn't

That is pretty easy to understand and unequivocal. You can't in any way reasonably misrepresent that, other than willfully.

And then in the closing of the thread I said:

If enough people wanted to share their drop experience on the forum it would be possible to check whether the drop rate really was 50% or not.

Rather than get data from everyone I went and did all the work myself and then when there was a statistically significant survey, posted the results here so everyone could see them.

And for that I get someone:

Making false statements about me and misrepresenting my views:

last time u said drop rate was lower

here on forum u said grade 5 rate was lower

unlike last time that u scientifically proved it wasnt

None of those statements are even remotely close tor reflecting what I actually said.

And that isn't enough for you, you have to throw in a bunch of completely unnecessary and unfounded personal insults.

u exactly know what i said if u are as scientific as u try to show with ur use of words or ur kinda trying to be insulting with use of clever words

in that post, u used science as hostage too

Why do I have to constantly take this pointless trolling and flaming here? It's not like this is an isolated incident, or that I haven't pointed out the trolling and flaming before.

This isn't even a contentious thread, everyone in it is pretty much agreeing and yet it still got to this state.

Just opened 10 Holly bonds. It was disappointing. I still don't have a Templar, Dryad, and Caliviers. I have been playing for almost 3 months now, and have applied over 25 holy bonds. 

I am not sure whether a Templar champion guaranteed has run, But I would really love a Dryad and a Caliver. I am happy I got another Grade 4 Caliver. 

MauiSon said:

It may be that the percentage is as advertised, but - what is the curve? If it's a cup curve (extremes on both ends most common, middling results rare), then it will certainly lead to dissatisfaction. Wouldn't it be nice to see 3 misses, then a hit for the 25% and a miss, then a hit for the 50% - every single time. This would help convince the skeptical player that the hit rates are unadjusted, even though it would leave in question the quality of the grade Vs one receives - he he.

The curve is a standard bell curve.  Changing that would mean Plarium implementing some system other than random chance.  With a random system sometimes you get lucky and sometimes you don't.   I opened 7 holy bonds during the last 50% event and got 6 grade Vs.  Some times I've opened 6-8 bonds and gotten 0 grade Vs.  

Yes he is stating a fact.

It's a coin flip. It's going to follow a normal distribution where both tails are identical (it's going to be a bi-nominal distribution to be precise - google it for yourself rather than take my word for it).

A flat line distribution would mean that you were just as likely to open 1m bonds and get no drops, as you were to get close to a 50/50 result, as you were to open 1m bonds and get all 1m as Grade V's. Nonsense right? 

Surely it's just common sense that extreme results are unlikely and therefore the distribution of results will taili off dramatically at either end? And as being lucky (getting the drop) is just as likely to be unlucky (not getting it), the curve will be symmetrical, identical on both ends. You don't even really need to know anything about maths to come to that conclusion?

50% it means "LUCK CHANCE" ..NOT  a guaranteed one...it s random and best you can get is 100% and worst is 0%(in which case 50% should be a false advertising).I opened thousands and thousands of bonds and what i ve learned is at 100 common bonds normaly i get 2 blue ones and this is very clear to me.Not the same thing i can say when is about Holy bonds.One thing is 50% "chance" event and other thing is "guaranteed champion type" event when you REALLY have  100% a grade 5 champ in 3 holy bonds.Please see the difference between these 2 events and you will see in guranteed grade 5 event Plarium implemented a secure rate of return while in 50% "chance" event not.The problem is with sentence "50% chance" which means a better drop rate or NOT.Someone said that this 50% drop rate is randomly divided by the number of bonds opened by several players in a row.In my opinion Plarium should let us know 50% chance works for how many holy bonds opened???if i open 100 holy ??50?Not to count for many accounts but to calculate by number of bonds you open beacouse that chance is applied at them not at accounts..otherwise due to injustice everything becomes a simple roulette imo!

50% it means "LUCK CHANCE" ..NOT  a guaranteed one...it s random and best you can get is 100% and worst is 0%(in which case 50% should be a false advertising).I opened thousands and thousands of bonds and what i ve learned is at 100 common bonds normaly i get 2 blue ones and this is very clear to me.Not the same thing i can say when is about Holy bonds.One thing is 50% "chance" event and other thing is "guaranteed champion type" event when you REALLY have  100% a grade 5 champ in 3 holy bonds.Please see the difference between these 2 events and you will see in guranteed grade 5 event Plarium implemented a secure rate of return while in 50% "chance" event not.The problem is with sentence "50% chance" which means a better drop rate or NOT.Someone said that this 50% drop rate is randomly divided by the number of bonds opened by several players in a row.In my opinion Plarium should let us know 50% chance works for how many holy bonds opened???if i open 100 holy ??50?Not to count for many accounts but to calculate by number of bonds you open beacouse that chance is applied at them not at accounts..otherwise due to injustice everything becomes a simple roulette imo!