Phylarch Battle Stats

9 Replies
Bye
16 April, 2017, 12:03 PM UTC

I spent the last couple of weeks jotting down blow-by-blow results for Phylarch battles, and although the results are not surprising, it's always good to have some data to back them up :-).


  1. With 500 blows as data points, the chances of scoring a 40% blow are around 14%, a miss is 9%, leaving 77% for the standard 20% result (see table top left).

  2. Comparing 200 targeted blows to the body vs. 200 blows well outside the opponent's body, results in differences smaller 1.5% (well within the margin of error) making it rather obvious that it doesn't matter at all where one clicks: (see table bottom right)

Has anyone had different experiences?


m2cw
P.

UTC +2:00
0
Alyona Kolomiitseva
Community Manager
18 April, 2017, 9:05 AM UTC
Very interesting :) Thank you for sharing your results.
Plarium Community Manager. Please note that I will be unable to respond to your private messages, review your tickets, or check your account information. All technical issues should be directed to our Support Team at plrm.me/Support_Plarium
UTC +2:00
0
Drag-Theseus
Moderator
18 April, 2017, 1:41 PM UTC
wow
I'm just Time Lord....
UTC +7:00
0
Xena
Moderator
23 April, 2017, 12:16 PM UTC

Amazing chart IP! 

So to sum up it doesn't matter where you will click?

The results are pretty much the same right? 
Warrior Princess
UTC +2:00
0
Bye
23 April, 2017, 12:25 PM UTC

Xena said:


So to sum up it doesn't matter where you will click?

The results are pretty much the same right? 

Yep, that's my take. Actually, I'm working on a theory that the next set of 5 strokes are already decided before you even swing your sword the very first time. Since I often play while on the road, short disconnects are more or less a daily occurrence, and when this happens after a Phylarch battle, I have the distinct impression that when replaying this 5-stroke battle, the results are identical. This is something one often finds in online games with asynchronous server connects and syncs, it's intended to keep players from cheating by quickly disconnecting after a lost battle and replaying the event in hope of a better outcome.

 But as I said: a theory, nothing more at this point :-)
UTC +2:00
0
Xena
Moderator
23 April, 2017, 12:33 PM UTC

The Irate Penguin said:


Xena said:


So to sum up it doesn't matter where you will click?

The results are pretty much the same right? 

Yep, that's my take. Actually, I'm working on a theory that the next set of 5 strokes are already decided before you even swing your sword the very first time. Since I often play while on the road, short disconnects are more or less a daily occurrence, and when this happens after a Phylarch battle, I have the distinct impression that when replaying this 5-stroke battle, the results are identical. This is something one often finds in online games with asynchronous server connects and syncs, it's intended to keep players from cheating by quickly disconnecting after a lost battle and replaying the event in hope of a better outcome.

 But as I said: a theory, nothing more at this point :-)

Yes I have noticed that myself.

There are times when the game lags and the phylarch is left there dead on the ground and when I click the claim button I can't claim my phylarch points.

So I refresh the game, therefore I engage into a battle with a phylarch again and the results are exactly the same as before, only this time I can actually claim the phylarch points after I have refreshed! 
Warrior Princess
UTC +2:00
0
Drag-Theseus
Moderator
25 April, 2017, 7:55 AM UTC
maybe move this post to Game Tutorial topic?
I'm just Time Lord....
UTC +7:00
0
Bye
25 April, 2017, 9:03 AM UTC

Drag-Theseus said:


maybe move this post to Game Tutorial topic?

That was (and is) the original plan, I did though want to give others a chance to contradict or offer their own take before elevating it to dogma :-)

Cheers
P.

UTC +2:00
0
chakrab
26 April, 2017, 2:22 AM UTC
just an observation, do you have any stats till 40% strength mark? i have found that once the opponent's strength reaches 20%, the next options are between 20% and miss. not sure if that's going to skew your data.
UTC -5:00
0
Bye
26 April, 2017, 3:01 AM UTC

chakrab said:


just an observation, do you have any stats till 40% strength mark? i have found that once the opponent's strength reaches 20%, the next options are between 20% and miss. not sure if that's going to skew your data.

That is a very good question which I did ask but was unable to answer. Although I did record which blows were conducted on the 80% mark and therefore had only two possible outcomes (miss and 20%), the number of data points (132 of 500) is a bit low to draw any meaningful conclusions.

The Data (numbers are rounded):

  • ... for all blows (500): 40% = 14%, miss = 9%, 20% = 77%

  • ... for blows dealt at the 80% mark (132): miss = 16%, 20% = 84%

  • ... for blows dealt NOT at the 80% mark (368): 40% = 17%, miss = 11%, 20% = 72%

Assuming two possible schemes only one of which can be true:

  1.  The game uses a different algorithm to calculate the likelyhood of a result based on only two possible outcomes, or ...

  2. ... the game randomizer algorithm for calculating results remains unchanged but all "40%" results are shown as 20%.

The data would suggest that the first is more likely to apply, but with only slightly more than 100 such data points recorded, the margin of error makes it difficult to say this with any degree of certainty.

Cheers
P.


UTC +2:00
0
1776655 users registered; 47904 topics; 285603 posts; our newest member:keevz