Happy to add columns, and also happy to provide an update daily in the morning my time (so same time as the above first chart) 😀
I agree on the active player base inference. I was also thinking about that a lot today at work. Most of the events can involve people buying things (e.g. Energy, Clan Boss keys, arena tokens), but some are really limited to a specific amount of resources per week. Of the latter, this would be Hydra and Faction Crypts
With Hydra, everyone only has 3 keys per week and there's no current way to purchase more. At 4.5 million keys needed for the XP Barrel, it is interesting to calculate exactly how many players are needed to achieve this.
The event runs from 18th July to the 18th of August, which is technically 4.5 weeks, but because Hydra resets in the middle of those weeks we have access to more than 4 weeks worth of keys. From what I can tell, the maximum amount of Hydra keys that an individual player would have had during this time would be below (note that exact dates may vary depending on where you are in the world, but I am using Australian time):
- 3 keys prior to the event starting, assuming they hadn't used it
- 3 more keys when Hydra resets on 20th July
- 3 more keys when Hydra resets again on 27th July
- 3 more keys when Hydra resets again on 3rd August
- 3 more keys when Hydra resets again on 10th August
- 3 more keys when Hydra resets again on the 17th August and then used immediately before the event finished
This brings the total maximum keys available per player to 18 if all conditions are perfect.
With 4.5 million keys needed to get the goal for Hydra, this equates to 250,000 active players, all utilizing every key during the event. An article 4 years ago (https://mmostats.com/game/raid-shadow-legends) seemed to indicate that there was 212,000 active players per day, though the number would have dramatically increased since then.
Hell Hades posted in Sep 2021 that it was 1 million per day (https://hellhades.com/is-raid-shadow-legends-a-meme/). I assume that a large portion of those players haven't even opened Hydra yet, let alone have a team for it (not that you need one, you just need to use 3 keys). If you assume 50% of the player base cannot help with Hydra, then we have 500,000 active players.
If you assume people only have 12 keys for the duration because they have already spent the first 3, and won't get a chance to spend the last 3, then it comes to 375,000 active players, or 750,000 if 50% cannot do Hydra.
Plarium would of course have better access to the number of active players, and would have used this to determine what goals to set, though I imagine they would have also pushed the goals a bit higher to encourage participation. Still, it does sound like there must be a decent chunk of active players if we are to achieve this. The percentages over the next couple of weeks or so will tell us more, and infact we can probably infer the number of active players by the rate of increase
The same could be done for Faction Wars, since with 18 keys a day the most a single person could complete stage 21 would be 4 times, or 124 times over the course of the 31 days, assuming having level 21 available for all crypts. With 3.5 million runs required, this comes to only 28,225 active players.
I suspect that it is dramatically less because not everyone has stage 21 open for all crypts.
All in all, I find this stuff fascinating to watch