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Jul 31, 2022, 22:4807/31/22
03/28/22
67

Oh queenie, you just don't stop how old are you? 18. I said I couldn't remember exactly look up my acct and you tell me, you are a high enough employee as a moderator to access players accts aren't you? I mean a moderator for a message board whoo your parents must be so proud of you!

Jul 31, 2022, 22:5707/31/22
06/20/19
2184

Why has this thread not been shut down?  The OP obviously has $1000 for every brain cell in their head.

Jul 31, 2022, 23:0907/31/22
03/28/22
67

Another one, I have done nothing but politely post my legitimate concerns. Had couple good interactions with some highly educated and smart people. The only time I have responded in non polite manner has been just that...a response to immature cretins such as your self.

Jul 31, 2022, 23:1107/31/22
03/28/22
67

I wish this thread would be shut down actually

Jul 31, 2022, 23:2007/31/22
Jul 31, 2022, 23:45(edited)
06/20/19
2184
PechangaDude

Another one, I have done nothing but politely post my legitimate concerns. Had couple good interactions with some highly educated and smart people. The only time I have responded in non polite manner has been just that...a response to immature cretins such as your self.

Politely? Asking people if they're 18 years old? Mocking them their parents must be proud for having a job?  That's what you call polite?  Thanks for proving my point.  Did that cost you $2000 or two brain cells?

edit: and just to be clear, my initial claim said nothing about a lack of politeness.

harleQuinnModerator
Jul 31, 2022, 23:3407/31/22
02/24/19
7109
PechangaDude

Oh queenie, you just don't stop how old are you? 18. I said I couldn't remember exactly look up my acct and you tell me, you are a high enough employee as a moderator to access players accts aren't you? I mean a moderator for a message board whoo your parents must be so proud of you!

I just want to make sure I properly understand your view of my role and follow your line of thinking here.

I am supposed to recognize when you make an error about the way the game works as far as what champs are available from what shards, as well as the specifics of your personal account, what champs you have pulled, what shards they can even come from, and which specific ones they came from in your case. I am supposed to go and search your account up and look through the account history for you as well, just so I can kindly correct someone talking trash. Sounds likely for sure. :)

However, I am NOT supposed to recognize when you make incredible errors in how probabilities explain exactly what happened when you pulled 107 voids and didn't get a legendary. I am not supposed to recognize the absolute absurdity of claiming Plarium has changed the summoning rates just for you. I am supposed to ignore ludicrous claims about what champs you pulled from where, and in what quantities.

Of course, being so young and foolish, I assume your insults and your suggestion I should kill myself over your misconceptions are a sign that you are a person whose advice and instructions are to be followed.  


i


harleQuinnModerator
Jul 31, 2022, 23:4407/31/22
02/24/19
7109
PechangaDude

I wish this thread would be shut down actually

We don't always get what we want, do we? So what I'm going to do is leave this thread open for commentary while giving you a timeout for attacking people.

Personally, I like giving people time to chat out their problems and release their "bad RNG" anger but your behavior is the farthest thing from polite. Maybe take your time away from the forums learning how to handle yourself appropriately.

Perhaps the insults were the wrong way to go if you wanted anyone to make good on your demands that we email you good legendary champs.

Aug 1, 2022, 01:1608/01/22
07/08/19
924
Angwil

Why has this thread not been shut down?  The OP obviously has $1000 for every brain cell in their head.

c'mon man, don't say that. i've not seen a thread this entertaining since warthog finally made good on their threats to quit.

Aug 1, 2022, 02:2608/01/22
10/11/20
366
Carpe_Piscis

c'mon man, don't say that. i've not seen a thread this entertaining since warthog finally made good on their threats to quit.

Can confirm lol

Aug 1, 2022, 08:3808/01/22
Aug 1, 2022, 08:39(edited)
04/24/22
2

Hallo,

Because there is a conversation about odds etc. I have a question:

Im now lvl 78, I play for over 2 years, I open every void shard I get, but I still did not get any void Legendary, the only ones I have are Arbiter and Visix, as you see, you dont need shards to get them. 

Is it possible to find out how many void shards I opened so far? Just to see how high my odds are because of the mercy system? 

Aug 1, 2022, 08:5308/01/22
06/25/20
6070
乂ᴹᴿˢ₲іนใі૯乂

Hallo,

Because there is a conversation about odds etc. I have a question:

Im now lvl 78, I play for over 2 years, I open every void shard I get, but I still did not get any void Legendary, the only ones I have are Arbiter and Visix, as you see, you dont need shards to get them. 

Is it possible to find out how many void shards I opened so far? Just to see how high my odds are because of the mercy system? 

As far as I'm aware, no, there is not. That said, you can probably do some quick back-of-the-envelope math based on your progression / CB level.

Aug 1, 2022, 09:1008/01/22
05/03/20
1743
PechangaDude

I said the odds go down and for me they have

You work in a casion.  Every day/night you see at least one patron hit a lucky streak.  Does that mean every patron should hit a lucky streak?

Aug 1, 2022, 10:0608/01/22
604
harleQuinn

Oh, my dude, I definitely don't look foolish.

Lets go back to some basics about how percantages work so we can examine why the odds are the way they are. We can start with some dice rolls for you, since you are familiar with dice by working in a casino.

i

As you can see from the above graphic, we are examining the odds of rolling a 5 on a 6 sided die. Everyone would agree the chances of getting a 5 on a single roll is 1/6 or 0.167.

5/6 = Chance of rolling anything else

1/6 =Chance of rolling a 5

So how do we examine the odds of getting a 5 on one die, then picking up a second die and also getting a 5 when we roll it? Well, just like the previous die, the new die has a 1/6 (0.167) chance of rolling a 5.

But how do we calculate how often we should see BOTH die roll a 5? Well, since they are independent events, we take the probability of the first event and then basically combine that with the probability of the second. We do that combination with multiplication.

1/6 x 1/6 = 2.78%

So we take that 1/6 from the first roll and multiply it against that 1/6 from the second roll. 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/32. 1/32 is 2.78%. Our chances of rolling the first five then the second five is 2.78%.


Now lets expand that into Void Shard pulls for Raid, during no events, like you are pulling on. The odds of pulling a legendary champ is only 0.5. So we have on one side 99.5 percent chance to not pull a legendary with a void shard, and 0.5 percent chance to pull a legendary.

0.995 = Chance to get a Void Rare or Epic

0.005 = Chance to get a Legendary

So when we pull once we have only a small chance of getting a legendary. When we pull a second time, just like in the dice example, we have that same small chance again. On BOTH events, you have a 0.995 chance to get a Rare or Epic.

In our die example, we looked at two 1/6 chances, and figured out that it was a 2.78% chance to get that to happen twice in a row. In our Raid example, we are going to look at the chances of getting a Void Rare/Epic twice in a row.

0.995 x 0.995 = 0.990

When we pull two shards, we have a 99.0% chance to end up with only Rare or Epic champions after those two pulls.

Pulling three shards:

0.995 x 0.995 x 0.995 = 0.985  A 98.5% chance to end up with only Rares and Epics

Pulling four shards:

0.995 x 0.995 x 0.995 x 0.995 = 0.980  A 98.0% chance to end up with only Rares and Epics 


Now we keep doing this, in your case, until we get all the way out to 107 Void Shards, we express multipling something (lets call it Y) by itself X number of times like this: Yˣ

That means getting nothing but epics and rares during 107 Void pulls is expressed like this: 0.995¹⁰⁷ 

 0.995¹⁰⁷  = 0.584  This is a 58.4% chance we end up with nothing but Epics and Rares after pulling 107 shards

And if we have a 58.4% chance of only getting Rares and Epics, then 100-58.4 = 41.6, we have a 41.6% chance to pull at least one legendary over 107 Void shards.

So yeah, Krama rounded up to 42%. But that seems fairly appropriate given your initial post was about pulling 107 void shards and getting no legendaries, and the probabllity of that happening was 58.4%.

Should be nice, but noooooo. 

"As you can see from the above graphic, we are examining the odds of rolling a 5 on a 6 sided die. Everyone would agree the chances of getting a 5 on a single roll is 1/6 or 0.167."


Can you telling me how many chance when try to use 3star speed glyphs upgrade in game.

33% to 1, 33% to 2, 33% to 3. If i remember good. How could i rolling with 3 sided die, 12 times in row 1? And after these ridicolous number instantly i rolled again over 10 times 1 result again 2 times. Pathetic, when with 3 sided dice the chance is 66,6% to 2 and 3 and just 33% chance to rolling to 1.

Aug 1, 2022, 10:1308/01/22
04/24/22
2
kramaswamy.kr

As far as I'm aware, no, there is not. That said, you can probably do some quick back-of-the-envelope math based on your progression / CB level.

I did it other way, I counted all my void champs (rare and epic xD) counted also the lvl of the attacks, cause I used dupes, and I was about 220 void shards +-10, so my mercy counter must be active... But how high is it exactly now and does it double on a 2x event? 

harleQuinnModerator
Aug 1, 2022, 10:2108/01/22
Aug 1, 2022, 10:25(edited)
02/24/19
7109
Deleted

Should be nice, but noooooo. 

"As you can see from the above graphic, we are examining the odds of rolling a 5 on a 6 sided die. Everyone would agree the chances of getting a 5 on a single roll is 1/6 or 0.167."


Can you telling me how many chance when try to use 3star speed glyphs upgrade in game.

33% to 1, 33% to 2, 33% to 3. If i remember good. How could i rolling with 3 sided die, 12 times in row 1? And after these ridicolous number instantly i rolled again over 10 times 1 result again 2 times. Pathetic, when with 3 sided dice the chance is 66,6% to 2 and 3 and just 33% chance to rolling to 1.

No one has ever said that speed glyphs, or any glyphs, are weighted equally. In fact, I often say it seems to be weighted more heavily towards the lower numbers. Glyphs just say 1-3, or 3-8, there are no published odds.

Furthermore.... I wasn't even talking about glyphs, dude. I was talking about 6 sided die.

A six sided die is not a Speed Glyph, and neither of those are a 3 sided die. An HP glyph is not a 20 sided die. An ATK glyph is not an 8 sided die. A pie is not ice cream. An airplane is not a submarine.

And finally, your example and argument does not apply at all to anything I took the time to write.

ShortOnSkillzModerator
Aug 1, 2022, 10:4408/01/22
06/24/19
1391
harleQuinn

No one has ever said that speed glyphs, or any glyphs, are weighted equally. In fact, I often say it seems to be weighted more heavily towards the lower numbers. Glyphs just say 1-3, or 3-8, there are no published odds.

Furthermore.... I wasn't even talking about glyphs, dude. I was talking about 6 sided die.

A six sided die is not a Speed Glyph, and neither of those are a 3 sided die. An HP glyph is not a 20 sided die. An ATK glyph is not an 8 sided die. A pie is not ice cream. An airplane is not a submarine.

And finally, your example and argument does not apply at all to anything I took the time to write.

While a Airplane is certainly not a Submarine there are more Airplanes in the oceans than Submarines in the sky.  By this logic I have proven all your previous arguments incorrect and I'll take my free legos in my inbox now.  Thank you for your time Q.

Aug 1, 2022, 11:2008/01/22
604
harleQuinn

No one has ever said that speed glyphs, or any glyphs, are weighted equally. In fact, I often say it seems to be weighted more heavily towards the lower numbers. Glyphs just say 1-3, or 3-8, there are no published odds.

Furthermore.... I wasn't even talking about glyphs, dude. I was talking about 6 sided die.

A six sided die is not a Speed Glyph, and neither of those are a 3 sided die. An HP glyph is not a 20 sided die. An ATK glyph is not an 8 sided die. A pie is not ice cream. An airplane is not a submarine.

And finally, your example and argument does not apply at all to anything I took the time to write.

Sorry the chances is chances if not manipulated. Thats not RNG when a dice  is manipulated in background. You know how could i rolling with three sided dice from over 30 tries almost always 1 results? If the dice is loaded dice. 

Aug 1, 2022, 11:3308/01/22
07/08/19
924
Deleted

Sorry the chances is chances if not manipulated. Thats not RNG when a dice  is manipulated in background. You know how could i rolling with three sided dice from over 30 tries almost always 1 results? If the dice is loaded dice. 

or it could be because you're rolling a six sided die; one with three faces that say 1, two faces that say 2, and one face that says 3.

as quinn said, nowhere does it claim that glyph rolls are evenly weighted. unequal chances do not equate to unfair chances however.

Aug 1, 2022, 11:3908/01/22
604
Carpe_Piscis

or it could be because you're rolling a six sided die; one with three faces that say 1, two faces that say 2, and one face that says 3.

as quinn said, nowhere does it claim that glyph rolls are evenly weighted. unequal chances do not equate to unfair chances however.

Or not dice, just a percentage number. 80% to 1, 15% to 2 and 5% to 3. But this is not RNG. This is not random numbers, just manipulated with percentage chance.

Aug 1, 2022, 11:4708/01/22
07/08/19
924
Deleted

Or not dice, just a percentage number. 80% to 1, 15% to 2 and 5% to 3. But this is not RNG. This is not random numbers, just manipulated with percentage chance.

dice or percentage, it's still rng. adding parameters doesn't change the process, just the outcome. it's no different to the odds on the shard pulls or upgrading an artifact.