Hello all, 

I thought it would be interesting to have the percentage chances of drawing a x10 champ during an event. Naturally, the source for these thoughts are the x10 valentine events activating just next week. Interestingly, I have exactly one of each pair....lucky me...

Please note: Yes, you can be very lucky and pull the targeted champ with your first shard....but you can also be unlucky and do not get him with 2000 shards. This is up for you to decide whether you are lucky or not. 

So at the moment there are 105 pullable *normal* legendary champs (NL) and 33 void legendary champs (VL).

The analysis is based upon actually pulling a legendary champ...this is a base chance of 0.5% which I will not include in my numbers. I will also assume that we have an even distribution of the champs in the pool and that there are no weighted odds (even if I always pull a fusion champ after aving finished the fusion).

During normal times (non-10x) the chances to pull a specific champ is 0,95 % (100/105) for a NL and 3 % (100/33) for a void legendary.

Now let's have a look at possible increases during x10. Basically 2 mechanism are possible

1.) The chance for the targeted champ is just multipied by 10 (which also results in reducing the overall chance for other champs by the difference). In this case the chance for a specific NL would be 9,5%, for a VL 30%. Personally I doubt that this mechanism is in place. 

2.) The pool of possible results is increased. The targeted champion is added 9 additional times to the pool. I rate this mechanism as more likely as it could by simply installed by just changing a field array with some numbers or strings. 

In this case, the chance to pull the targeted champ would be 8.78 % (100/114*10) for a targeted NL and 

and 23,81 % for a VL (100/42*10).

To relate those chances to a number of shards you need to pull, I just calculate the chances to pull a targeted champ to be higher than 50%. I do not regard mercy in this. I just assume (judging from my own numbers) that I need about 120 shards (void and ancient) to get a legendary (the actual numbers are worse during x10 as my numbers also include x2 events)

For ancients, I calculate the negative event...that would be y= 0.922^x 

y is the value of the probability which should be 0.5 (25 % to NOT draw the targeted champ) or less, x is the number of shard packages I have to draw (120 shards).

At x being around 9, I am slighty under the value of 0.5 (0.481)

Meaning: To get a targeted champ on a x10, you need to pull about 1080 ancient shards to get the same chance than tossing a coin and have it land on a predicted side.

With VL, the chances are drastically better:

For x= 3 you are under the 50% chance so you need about 360 void shards to get the targetted champ.

Please judge by yourself whether these numbers and chances are good to you.

Just to compare: If the chances would be increased to x20, the chances and numbers would be 16,13% ( 480 shards)[NL] and 38,46 % (240 shards) [VL].

Judge by yourself...as I said, you can get very lucky and pull the targetted champ with the first pull. You might also never pull him/her.