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fix drop with boss clan

fix drop with boss clan

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harleQuinnModerator
Dec 22, 2021, 16:3312/22/21
Dec 22, 2021, 17:56(edited)
02/24/19
2603
Wolverisha

Good evening Harle! I created this topic a week ago! And several times you told more than one of me that you handed everything over to the developers! Have they still not commented on this in any way? Although what I'm asking, they never admit it! Although everything suggests that the drop has changed for the worse, or rather was replaced by epic books! Do you know why? Because this is Plarium and they don't give a damn about their community! They have proven this more than once that they have only one thing in their heads, how to suck more money out of the players!

Looking into data takes time. More than that, this is the holidays and several people are on vacation.

I hate to have to ask you for patience, but this isn't a question that will be answered quickly, as there is a lot to look into. So far, they have told me that clan boss rates have not been changed at all, but were looking into this data for us.

Dec 22, 2021, 16:3412/22/21
Dec 22, 2021, 17:58(edited)
12/19/19
3790
Wolverisha

Don't believe ? Read social networks, reddit, facebook, reviews in the google store Russian-language forum, there is also this topic! there are a lot of people writing about the fact that only epic books fall! how can you explain this? Did they all agree and just drive you to Plarium? My drop until November 17 is 5-6 sacred shards 15-20 purple and 50-60 ancient per month! So why do I only get epic books for a month? and 3-4 Ancient Shards a week and nothing else? Drought? Why, then, in a year and a half of playing that I beat 4 5 6 clan bosses every day and take from them 2 of the best chests, I have never had such a terrible drop?

I am not sure how you do not see the data collection problem?

You can't start with a problem, go back in time and collect data for the bad rng poopulation and be surprised that this self-selected cohort supports the hypothesis.  You are basically including the independent variable in your predictor set.

Starting today.  Pick any 10 people, and livestream opening CB chests for 2 weeks.  I don't need a statistically significant sample size, p-values or histograms.  Just clean data.

  • Any 10 people that will get 2 UNM chests daily
  • Record & Collect 280 data points
  • Do not add or remove from sample

This data will be 1000x more useful than what you have now.  That is actually false, since your data has 0 value currently....

Just simply pick the 10 people and start date BEFORE you start your trial.

And I am not racist, all 10 can be Russian. 

Dec 22, 2021, 16:5512/22/21
11/05/20
64
Trips

I am not sure how you do not see the data collection problem?

You can't start with a problem, go back in time and collect data for the bad rng poopulation and be surprised that this self-selected cohort supports the hypothesis.  You are basically including the independent variable in your predictor set.

Starting today.  Pick any 10 people, and livestream opening CB chests for 2 weeks.  I don't need a statistically significant sample size, p-values or histograms.  Just clean data.

  • Any 10 people that will get 2 UNM chests daily
  • Record & Collect 280 data points
  • Do not add or remove from sample

This data will be 1000x more useful than what you have now.  That is actually false, since your data has 0 value currently....

Just simply pick the 10 people and start date BEFORE you start your trial.

And I am not racist, all 10 can be Russian. 

How can I collect this data? Our whole clan gets 2 best chests from 4, 5 and 6 clan bosses every day! and 25 out of 30 people receive only epic books and 3-4 ancient shards per week during the month! 5 people received 1-2 sacral fragments during this time! If you don't believe my words! How can I prove it to you? Should I draw graphs? Ask them to make screenshots? Record video? what data are we talking about?

Dec 22, 2021, 17:1612/22/21
12/19/19
3790
Wolverisha

How can I collect this data? Our whole clan gets 2 best chests from 4, 5 and 6 clan bosses every day! and 25 out of 30 people receive only epic books and 3-4 ancient shards per week during the month! 5 people received 1-2 sacral fragments during this time! If you don't believe my words! How can I prove it to you? Should I draw graphs? Ask them to make screenshots? Record video? what data are we talking about?

Screenshots & Video please (The entire clan would be even better!)

I realize I sound like I am calling you a liar, I am not.  I have no proof to contradict your claim, but I have seen zero evidence to support it.  Apologies, but I will not spend 20 minutes analyzing unreliable data.  

harleQuinnModerator
Dec 22, 2021, 17:3312/22/21
02/24/19
2603
Wolverisha

How can I collect this data? Our whole clan gets 2 best chests from 4, 5 and 6 clan bosses every day! and 25 out of 30 people receive only epic books and 3-4 ancient shards per week during the month! 5 people received 1-2 sacral fragments during this time! If you don't believe my words! How can I prove it to you? Should I draw graphs? Ask them to make screenshots? Record video? what data are we talking about?

Without being sarcastic, recording video/pics of all openings for 2 weeks straight from all your chests from your clan for two weeks would be awesome, reporting every chest. This is exactly what he is asking for, yes. If I were Trips, I would want that data collection to continue after that, but two weeks would give him something to start with for the hypothesis testing he is proposing.

Dec 22, 2021, 21:2112/22/21
10/15/20
683
harleQuinn

I stated I reported this to Plarium. 

I also wholheartedly think that this is a reporting bias.  People who are having bad luck with epic books go online and chat with others having bad luck, and then they build an inaccurate hump in the distribution curve since they are the only ones reporting a problem. People with good luck, or even normal, don't go online and report their drop rates. 

Everyone who has had an amazing month isn't going onto the internet searching for "CB drop rates changed" and posting their results. That skews the data due to it being self-reported, and basically a culmination of "negative confirmation bias". My experience with weird humps in my research data is to go back and see what I messed up in my data collection.

THAT BEING SAID, I reported this to Plarium. I have made them aware of this post and the numbers. It's up to them now. 

That would explain lower than expected drops, but not the change in drop rate since the start of the data collection would be subject to the same reporting bias?

harleQuinnModerator
Dec 22, 2021, 23:3012/22/21
02/24/19
2603
trevor.wilson

That would explain lower than expected drops, but not the change in drop rate since the start of the data collection would be subject to the same reporting bias?

I have not personally analyzed any of the data to be able to answer this question for you.

harleQuinnModerator
Dec 23, 2021, 00:1312/23/21
02/24/19
2603
PLAYER S

All bs them are old pictures and hellhades dont even get drops like that no one on my clan either BS https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8j55zg7dGBo

Yep. Quinn is the worst. I'll bet she's a bot.

HarbbyModerator
Dec 23, 2021, 00:1512/23/21
01/04/20
1563
harleQuinn

Yep. Quinn is the worst. I'll bet she's a bot.

How old are your pics, bot?

Dec 23, 2021, 00:4712/23/21
03/18/20
275

alrighty my unm cb rng finally broken for the better double sacreds last night ill track what i get for the next few weeks

harleQuinnModerator
Dec 23, 2021, 00:5212/23/21
02/24/19
2603
Harbby

How old are your pics, bot?

Whatever date it was that I posted my response? Like I said in the post? 0_0

Dec 23, 2021, 01:0512/23/21
Dec 23, 2021, 01:08(edited)
10/24/20
6

Hi, guys,

want to add few explanations.

First, we try not to describe our data filters in details publicly, because we hope to prevent future attacks to our bot data from users. Sorry if it make any of you more suspicious. I can understand this.

Second, users can only add their today drop until midnignt MSK. After that moment user can't change it. So you can't push a lot of data at once. We hope it protects data a bit. And to be honest it's just easy to write from developer perspective.

And also regarding you thoughts that only people with bad drop track it down I want to share how the idea of this bot appeared. Our clanmates complains on cb drop almost on daily basis, and I always was like "guys, calm down, it's just rng, come on". And we decieded to track our drop in excel. But personally I open my chest from mobile device, and it's really hard  for me to switch to excel to write it down and don't mess up something. So it was high risk that I just give up on that. So we decieded to create this bot. And now most of my clan mates say this: "I thought I had bad drop for the last few days, but than I check my whole drop for current month and it's ok, just usuall drop". So people who write down their ok drop do exist.

HarbbyModerator
Dec 23, 2021, 01:1212/23/21
Dec 23, 2021, 01:32(edited)
01/04/20
1563
harleQuinn

Whatever date it was that I posted my response? Like I said in the post? 0_0

I'm watching you. 

Dec 23, 2021, 01:3212/23/21
06/20/19
930
masha.verdina

Hi, guys,

want to add few explanations.

First, we try not to describe our data filters in details publicly, because we hope to prevent future attacks to our bot data from users. Sorry if it make any of you more suspicious. I can understand this.

Second, users can only add their today drop until midnignt MSK. After that moment user can't change it. So you can't push a lot of data at once. We hope it protects data a bit. And to be honest it's just easy to write from developer perspective.

And also regarding you thoughts that only people with bad drop track it down I want to share how the idea of this bot appeared. Our clanmates complains on cb drop almost on daily basis, and I always was like "guys, calm down, it's just rng, come on". And we decieded to track our drop in excel. But personally I open my chest from mobile device, and it's really hard  for me to switch to excel to write it down and don't mess up something. So it was high risk that I just give up on that. So we decieded to create this bot. And now most of my clan mates say this: "I thought I had bad drop for the last few days, but than I check my whole drop for current month and it's ok, just usuall drop". So people who write down their ok drop do exist.

Thanks

harleQuinnModerator
Dec 23, 2021, 04:5112/23/21
02/24/19
2603
masha.verdina

Hi, guys,

want to add few explanations.

First, we try not to describe our data filters in details publicly, because we hope to prevent future attacks to our bot data from users. Sorry if it make any of you more suspicious. I can understand this.

Second, users can only add their today drop until midnignt MSK. After that moment user can't change it. So you can't push a lot of data at once. We hope it protects data a bit. And to be honest it's just easy to write from developer perspective.

And also regarding you thoughts that only people with bad drop track it down I want to share how the idea of this bot appeared. Our clanmates complains on cb drop almost on daily basis, and I always was like "guys, calm down, it's just rng, come on". And we decieded to track our drop in excel. But personally I open my chest from mobile device, and it's really hard  for me to switch to excel to write it down and don't mess up something. So it was high risk that I just give up on that. So we decieded to create this bot. And now most of my clan mates say this: "I thought I had bad drop for the last few days, but than I check my whole drop for current month and it's ok, just usuall drop". So people who write down their ok drop do exist.

Thanks for jumping in and explaining Masha, several times now.  I know you'll keep collecting data. I look forward to logging my own with the bot soon. <3

Dec 23, 2021, 05:0512/23/21
03/25/20
31

Hello to all

I looked through the topics about the drop from KB in Russian thread, I also decided to get acquainted with this thread. (read all messages with the help of a translator, and write too). I will try to express my thoughts.

Someone thinks Plarium has no reason to do this, but Plarium are quite secretive and often they do not discuss changes in the game until the last (for example, a failure compensation system). It may well be that they made edits in other parts of the game and this affected the KB) Either they optimized the drop algorithm, the mechanics of the KB and something related to it, and that went wrong. A month or two ago there was a moment when some people did not take into account the damage to the boss for several days. People beat the clanbos as usual, but did not receive any chests. Somehow their data was lost. I think Plarium changed the structure of their databases and incorrectly transferred the information, may be also it was a planned segregation, but with a crude algorithm. Yes, my explanations seem confusing, but it seems to be better than how Plarium explained that 'bots' are not bots, but 'players of the alternative segment')

Dec 23, 2021, 11:5712/23/21
Dec 23, 2021, 11:59(edited)
11/05/20
64
harleQuinn

Whatever date it was that I posted my response? Like I said in the post? 0_0

Good evening Harle! Check out this video, please! The Russian-speaking blogger on the game Rae has collected statistics for the year from the clan boss! Look at the drop he had before! and this month, 0 sacred shards! You understand 0 !!!!


Dec 23, 2021, 14:3912/23/21
12/19/19
3790
Wolverisha

Good evening Harle! Check out this video, please! The Russian-speaking blogger on the game Rae has collected statistics for the year from the clan boss! Look at the drop he had before! and this month, 0 sacred shards! You understand 0 !!!!


So does Harle need to analyze your data and learn Russian over Xmas? :)

dthorne04Moderator
Dec 23, 2021, 16:0812/23/21
12/30/20
983
Wolverisha

Good evening Harle! Check out this video, please! The Russian-speaking blogger on the game Rae has collected statistics for the year from the clan boss! Look at the drop he had before! and this month, 0 sacred shards! You understand 0 !!!!


Might I suggest reading back in the thread where you will find relevant information such as: "Looking into data takes time. More than that, this is the holidays and several people are on vacation." and that Quinn has in fact spoken with the people behind the RSL CB Drop Bot (and thus has an understanding of what's going on), whose bot you mentioned last week when you started this thread?

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