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fix drop with boss clan

fix drop with boss clan

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Dec 15, 2021, 06:3812/15/21
11/05/20
64

fix drop with boss clan

Hello comrades! I am very interested in your opinion about the boss clan drop! The fact is that in the telegram there is a bot for collecting drop from the boss clan, RSL CB Drop Bot so its creators gave us statistics RSL CB Drop Bot  use a translator and tell me, have you all been bombarded with epic books since November 17? because we see nothing but these books at all!

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harleQuinnModerator
Dec 15, 2021, 06:4312/15/21
02/24/19
1713

I don't know of any changes to the CB drop rates. And Plarium has said several times there is no change. I can ask again though.

Dec 15, 2021, 06:5212/15/21
11/05/20
64
harleQuinn

I don't know of any changes to the CB drop rates. And Plarium has said several times there is no change. I can ask again though.

Please read the article I provided, everything is very clearly described there and you can also get acquainted with the Russian branch on the forum about this, everyone there except the moderator) only epic books fall Drop 

Dec 15, 2021, 08:0912/15/21
12/31/20
14
I don't know of any changes to the CB drop rates. And Plarium has said several times there is no change. 

No intended changes probably. I'll translate parts of the article(s) for you because, while I'm unaffected myself, there are people in my clan with the described problem and I think if it's true then this needs to be fixed

So basically the authors created a Telegram bot that allows its users to report CB drops separately for Brutal, NM and UNM daily. They started in November and after a month filtered the results (excluded users with low result fill rate, users who reported 1 chest instead of two, users who reported extreme amounts like 10 Sacreds per chest etc.) and what was left was data from 644 users with 90%+ days per month result fill rate. Here's the link to the article https://telegra.ph/Statistika-po-KB-11-19-2, the diagrams are kinda self-explanatory. The conclusion to which the creators of the bot came was "The drop from NM and UNM CB (separately), as of November 2021, isn't in any way anomalous and is similar to the numbers reported before, at least for the last year"

For clarity I will include one diagram, it's the distribution of epic and legendary tomes in the first half of November 2021:


i

As you can see, in November the diagrams for epic and legendary tome drops are similar to the usual Gaussian curve.

The authors continued registering drops from 600+ users and, starting Nov 18, noticed an inexplicable raise in the quantity of epic tomes recieved from UNM+NM in at least 18% of the users (including one of the bot creators). 

Here's a diagram from December 12, source article: https://telegra.ph/Statistika-po-KB-dekabr-2021-12-12

It represents epic tome drop rate from UNM CB in second half of November to December 12


i

Totally different from a normal distribution graph. The existence of the second "hump" in the right part of the diagram presupposes that, aside from a larger group of users recieving normal amounts, close to median expected number, there's a smaller (18-19% of users) group recieving substantially more epic books from UNM CB (20+ in a span of 3 weeks). Having increased drop rate of epic books also resulted in no or few Sacred, void shards and Legendary tomes in this group.

The authors state that this change in drop might be associated with this hotfix:


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since it took place right before the changes in drop rates started being registered.

This is basically what the two articles are about. I'm not a fan of tinfoil hat theories myself, but seeing people report similar problems with drops on Reddit, here on the forums and in my clan and then also recieving this data is kinda troublesome. I hope you can pass this to the developers for it to be looked into.

Dec 15, 2021, 09:0912/15/21
11/05/20
64
N00basique
I don't know of any changes to the CB drop rates. And Plarium has said several times there is no change. 

No intended changes probably. I'll translate parts of the article(s) for you because, while I'm unaffected myself, there are people in my clan with the described problem and I think if it's true then this needs to be fixed

So basically the authors created a Telegram bot that allows its users to report CB drops separately for Brutal, NM and UNM daily. They started in November and after a month filtered the results (excluded users with low result fill rate, users who reported 1 chest instead of two, users who reported extreme amounts like 10 Sacreds per chest etc.) and what was left was data from 644 users with 90%+ days per month result fill rate. Here's the link to the article https://telegra.ph/Statistika-po-KB-11-19-2, the diagrams are kinda self-explanatory. The conclusion to which the creators of the bot came was "The drop from NM and UNM CB (separately), as of November 2021, isn't in any way anomalous and is similar to the numbers reported before, at least for the last year"

For clarity I will include one diagram, it's the distribution of epic and legendary tomes in the first half of November 2021:


i

As you can see, in November the diagrams for epic and legendary tome drops are similar to the usual Gaussian curve.

The authors continued registering drops from 600+ users and, starting Nov 18, noticed an inexplicable raise in the quantity of epic tomes recieved from UNM+NM in at least 18% of the users (including one of the bot creators). 

Here's a diagram from December 12, source article: https://telegra.ph/Statistika-po-KB-dekabr-2021-12-12

It represents epic tome drop rate from UNM CB in second half of November to December 12


i

Totally different from a normal distribution graph. The existence of the second "hump" in the right part of the diagram presupposes that, aside from a larger group of users recieving normal amounts, close to median expected number, there's a smaller (18-19% of users) group recieving substantially more epic books from UNM CB (20+ in a span of 3 weeks). Having increased drop rate of epic books also resulted in no or few Sacred, void shards and Legendary tomes in this group.

The authors state that this change in drop might be associated with this hotfix:


i

since it took place right before the changes in drop rates started being registered.

This is basically what the two articles are about. I'm not a fan of tinfoil hat theories myself, but seeing people report similar problems with drops on Reddit, here on the forums and in my clan and then also recieving this data is kinda troublesome. I hope you can pass this to the developers for it to be looked into.

The problem is that... I am 100% sure that the developers will ignore this article or simply unsubscribe, as they did with the recent situation with the Qr code on Fein, uh, sorry for a bunch of sacred fragments! but the attempt is not torture, as they say, it may be possible to reach them 

Dec 15, 2021, 12:1312/15/21
04/12/19
104

Hello.  Sorry, for the crooked English, I use a translator.  there is some problem with the clan boss drop.  about a month ago, almost everything was replaced by epic books.  at the moment there have been 47 of them, but there is nothing else.  sacral shards for a month 1. legendary books 2. with constant farming 2 bosses.  5 and 6 for 2 chests daily.  the guys made a bot, into which users enter what falls out, and it gives the result in the form of the amount of the dropped out.  statistics are based on this.  Since November 16-17, some users have gone a huge leap in getting epic books that replace the rest of the drop.  at the moment - in the last 3 days alone, 7 epic books have dropped to me, and the total number has become 47, in a month.  there is nothing more.  the moderator of the forum on topics that users create, replies - everything is fine, everything drops out for me.  people write to him that he may be fine, but a significant part of the players - at the same time, there was a huge bias in the direction of epic books.  on this - zero attention.  but there is a problem.  under such conditions, even closing the merger becomes impossible.  participation in clan wars - too.  I will notice that this is not only my problem.  many are faced with just such a replacement for dropped items.

Dec 15, 2021, 12:2712/15/21
Dec 15, 2021, 12:28(edited)
04/12/19
104



this is my usual drop for a month.  over and over and over again.  the developers may not have changed anything, but the problem is obviously there.  something is not working correctly.  after the publication of the problem on the discord, the person immediately unsubscribed that he had a similar problem.  many write in communities about the game, in a telegram, social networks with a similar problem.  it is a large increase in epic books to the detriment of the rest.  many attributed it to bad luck, but the trend has been continuing for a month, and after the publication of statistics from the bot, it became clear that this was a problem of a large number of players.  in the article that they offer to read, a huge increase is really visible, this cannot be ignored.

i


Dec 15, 2021, 12:5612/15/21
11/16/20
434

Not to jump once again onto the cb drop conspiracy but I've seen very similar results to what appears to being posted here in regards to epic books literally every day and almost no shards. 

Dec 15, 2021, 13:1212/15/21
04/12/19
104

here are the last 3 days.  these are +7 epic books.  no more screenshots.  there was no point in doing.  there is a screen of books, of which there are now 47, and there were 0 for the past clan wars.  there is also a screen of legendary books, which are now 8. 3 for missions to ramantu, 1 from the arena 3 * 3, 1 for a month of tasks, 2 from the fatal tower and only 1 from the last cw for the boss.

i


i


i


ihere are the last 3 days.  these are +7 epic books.  no more screenshots.  there was no point in doing.  there is a screen of books, of which there are now 47, and there were 0 for the past clan wars.  there is also a screen of legendary books, which are now 8. 3 for missions to ramantu, 1 from the arena 3 * 3, 1 for a month of tasks, 2 from the fatal tower and only 1 from the last cw for the boss.
Dec 15, 2021, 13:1412/15/21
04/12/19
104
evilized6666

Not to jump once again onto the cb drop conspiracy but I've seen very similar results to what appears to being posted here in regards to epic books literally every day and almost no shards. 

1 post above.  the forum does not work well from my phone)

Dec 15, 2021, 14:4512/15/21
Dec 15, 2021, 14:48(edited)
06/20/19
695

If this is an issue, then it certainly should be addressed.  It's also certainly not affecting everyone.  So how are only certain players being affected?  I would say at this point, given the small sample sizes, the short time span, and the difficulty of statistically comparing these results to the population at large, to continue taking data.  I'll share my results for November.  My epic tome drop rate certainly went up mid november, only 1 in the first half to 7 in the second half.  My legg tome drop rate plumeted from 9 the first hafe to only 4 in the second half.  I really have not noticed a distinct pattern in shard drops.  While I certainly notice an increase in Epic drops mid-November, If anything is anomolous in my results, it's the explosion of leggo tomes dropped in early November.


Edit:  I almost forgot to point out, rather important, these results are based on ALL daily chests opened, not on individual chests.

i


Dec 15, 2021, 15:0212/15/21
06/25/20
1358

This just screams small sample size and cherry-picking of data. The part where the authors of this "study" explicitly state that they removed what they call "erroneous" data is a huge red flag to me. Talk to any data scientist and they will tell you that removing data in order to make your model "fit" is a very risky move.

I look at this more pragmatically. I'm a programmer by trade, and I can tell you that even if they actually wanted to implement this, it would not be a simple exercise, and would make the code extremely fragile and prone to errors. Yes, there is always the chance that this is a bug, but it would be a very strange one indeed.

Occam's razor - the most logical explanation here is just small sample size and selective bias in reporting. The people reporting data will be heavily weighted towards those who believe they are victims of a bug, which will implicitly cause the data to be biased. You get a positive feedback loop - as more people report the "problem", you'll see the results skewed towards that subset, and that'll cause more people to start noticing and reporting the same "problem". 

Dec 15, 2021, 15:0212/15/21
08/17/21
159

 That's strange, I'm having the opposite experience. I have more ancient, void and sacred shards right now than ever before but it's been a couple weeks since I've seen a book. Maybe I'm getting all your shards and you're getting all my books? :-) The shards are awesome and I'll enjoy pulling them when the time is right but truth be told I have more good epic champions than I can build and I'd welcome some books. In case it matters I only get 2 chests a day, top for Nightmare and Brutal but sometimes I get the second best for Brutal since I rely on one-keying that difficulty and occasionally I don't quite make it.

Dec 15, 2021, 15:5012/15/21
12/19/19
3331
kramaswamy.kr

This just screams small sample size and cherry-picking of data. The part where the authors of this "study" explicitly state that they removed what they call "erroneous" data is a huge red flag to me. Talk to any data scientist and they will tell you that removing data in order to make your model "fit" is a very risky move.

I look at this more pragmatically. I'm a programmer by trade, and I can tell you that even if they actually wanted to implement this, it would not be a simple exercise, and would make the code extremely fragile and prone to errors. Yes, there is always the chance that this is a bug, but it would be a very strange one indeed.

Occam's razor - the most logical explanation here is just small sample size and selective bias in reporting. The people reporting data will be heavily weighted towards those who believe they are victims of a bug, which will implicitly cause the data to be biased. You get a positive feedback loop - as more people report the "problem", you'll see the results skewed towards that subset, and that'll cause more people to start noticing and reporting the same "problem". 

So removing the data with shard drops will skew the results? 

I got a sacred and void shard today in my sample size of 1 player from unm 

Dec 15, 2021, 15:5512/15/21
04/12/19
104
kramaswamy.kr

This just screams small sample size and cherry-picking of data. The part where the authors of this "study" explicitly state that they removed what they call "erroneous" data is a huge red flag to me. Talk to any data scientist and they will tell you that removing data in order to make your model "fit" is a very risky move.

I look at this more pragmatically. I'm a programmer by trade, and I can tell you that even if they actually wanted to implement this, it would not be a simple exercise, and would make the code extremely fragile and prone to errors. Yes, there is always the chance that this is a bug, but it would be a very strange one indeed.

Occam's razor - the most logical explanation here is just small sample size and selective bias in reporting. The people reporting data will be heavily weighted towards those who believe they are victims of a bug, which will implicitly cause the data to be biased. You get a positive feedback loop - as more people report the "problem", you'll see the results skewed towards that subset, and that'll cause more people to start noticing and reporting the same "problem". 

I can’t argue for everyone, I didn’t do those statistics.  I'm talking about myself.  the drop is terrible for a month.  people in the clan see it, for example.  an abnormal amount of epic books falls, and nothing else.  I did not write about it, considering it a simple bad luck, but this has been going on for a month.  and they just threw me this sample from the bot.  Let's say that it itself is not entirely accurate, but it served as an impetus for people who were silent with a similar problem to start writing.  I could not close the merge demites, I do not know how to close this merge, because the shards just do not fall.  I missed the double call, because there are simply no resources, and I will also pass by the merge apparently.  and this is not because I am not saving, but because there is nothing to save.

harleQuinnModerator
Dec 15, 2021, 16:0512/15/21
02/24/19
1713

The problem is these results are self-reported. Everyone who has had an amazing month isn't going onto the internet searching for "CB drop rates changed" and posting their amazing 7 day straight of sacred + legendary books. So I worry we are only getting bad reports here, from people who are on a bad streak. (600 is not many reports for a game with millions of users)

For example, here's an UNM chest I just pulled, right now, as I was starting to type this post:

i

ALL THAT SAID, I have reported this and will see what they say....

Dec 15, 2021, 16:1012/15/21
08/17/21
159

 Wow, nice drop!

harleQuinnModerator
Dec 15, 2021, 16:1612/15/21
02/24/19
1713
WastelandKnight

 Wow, nice drop!

I know, right??

I have three sacreds from the past 7 days alone. My best streak I think. Looks like I have gotten 3 legendary books since last CvC as well.

Really could be my best streak ever. :D

Dec 15, 2021, 16:1712/15/21
04/12/19
104
harleQuinn

The problem is these results are self-reported. Everyone who has had an amazing month isn't going onto the internet searching for "CB drop rates changed" and posting their amazing 7 day straight of sacred + legendary books. So I worry we are only getting bad reports here, from people who are on a bad streak. (600 is not many reports for a game with millions of users)

For example, here's an UNM chest I just pulled, right now, as I was starting to type this post:

i

ALL THAT SAID, I have reported this and will see what they say....

why can't you hear what they say?  specifically, your drop might not have changed.  and none of those who say, none of those who wrote the report on statistics - does not say that the drop on cb was cut for everyone.  no, it refers specifically to a random group of players.  or it could not change significantly for you.  moreover, I have a feeling that some players also have it better.  in the clan chat there are often screenshots of 3-4 top items per player.  2 Legendary Books and a Sacral Shard, or 2 Sacral Shards and a Legendary Book.  the other day the guy has 4 legendary books with 2 bosses ... and I'm happy for them, but I've been playing for 3 years, and I've never had such a drop as now.  50 epic books have never been accumulated in a month.  what bad luck can be if only these long unnecessary books fall in a month.

Dec 15, 2021, 16:2012/15/21
06/25/20
1358
harleQuinn

The problem is these results are self-reported. Everyone who has had an amazing month isn't going onto the internet searching for "CB drop rates changed" and posting their amazing 7 day straight of sacred + legendary books. So I worry we are only getting bad reports here, from people who are on a bad streak. (600 is not many reports for a game with millions of users)

For example, here's an UNM chest I just pulled, right now, as I was starting to type this post:

i

ALL THAT SAID, I have reported this and will see what they say....

Yup. Exactly this. This is the positive reinforcement feedback loop I was trying to describe.

harleQuinnModerator
Dec 15, 2021, 16:2212/15/21
Dec 15, 2021, 16:26(edited)
02/24/19
1713
el.termito

why can't you hear what they say?  specifically, your drop might not have changed.  and none of those who say, none of those who wrote the report on statistics - does not say that the drop on cb was cut for everyone.  no, it refers specifically to a random group of players.  or it could not change significantly for you.  moreover, I have a feeling that some players also have it better.  in the clan chat there are often screenshots of 3-4 top items per player.  2 Legendary Books and a Sacral Shard, or 2 Sacral Shards and a Legendary Book.  the other day the guy has 4 legendary books with 2 bosses ... and I'm happy for them, but I've been playing for 3 years, and I've never had such a drop as now.  50 epic books have never been accumulated in a month.  what bad luck can be if only these long unnecessary books fall in a month.

I stated I reported this to Plarium. 

I also wholheartedly think that this is a reporting bias.  People who are having bad luck with epic books go online and chat with others having bad luck, and then they build an inaccurate hump in the distribution curve since they are the only ones reporting a problem. People with good luck, or even normal, don't go online and report their drop rates. 

Everyone who has had an amazing month isn't going onto the internet searching for "CB drop rates changed" and posting their results. That skews the data due to it being self-reported, and basically a culmination of "negative confirmation bias". My experience with weird humps in my research data is to go back and see what I messed up in my data collection.

THAT BEING SAID, I reported this to Plarium. I have made them aware of this post and the numbers. It's up to them now. 

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