If you study your statistics you would know that you had it good compared to oooh so many players.

1 chance in 361 million exactly

0.5% is 1 chance in 200

95 legendaries ... 200 x 95 = 19,000. For a random shard you have a 1 in 19,000 chance of having a given legendary

Having it twice  must be 19,000 x 19,000 = 361,000,000

Sotark said:

1 chance in 361 million exactly

0.5% is 1 chance in 200

95 legendaries ... 200 x 95 = 19,000. For a random shard you have a 1 in 19,000 chance of having a given legendary

Having it twice  must be 19,000 x 19,000 = 361,000,000

No that's not how you count your probability of getting a duplicate. You can't just calculate how many heroes there are and divide 1 by that numbers of heroes. You have to see the mechanics of the pull.

What you calculate is the probability of you getting a specific champ that you want (and even that is not how you count it). It's a completely different calculation to count your chance of getting s duplicate.

Here let me show you:

1. The chance of you getting a legendary from blue shards is 0.5% if you use the shard in a 2x event, it's 1%

You stated that you gain a legendary every 50 blue shard, meaning your real probability is 2% that's 400% higher than the stated chance, this in itself means you really got to be thankful.

2. The way the roll goes, in every pull you got the system to roll 2 dice. The first dice is to roll the rarity of the champion you are getting, and then the 2nd dice is to roll the specific hero. This us why Plarium have two kind of boost event, the 2x event is boosting the first dice, while 10x event is boosting the 2nd dice

The duplicate chance is calculated in the 2nd dice, as you stated you have 11 legendary and 2 of them are duplicates, meaning you have 9 unique legendaries. So your chance of getting a legendary duplicate is 9 / 95 = 9.5% and going higher and higher as you gain more unique legendaries.

Currently your chance of getting a duplicate is around the same chance of getting a listed legendary in a 10x event.

So including the 1st dice calculation (total probability) then your chance of getting a legendary duplicate is 0.5% x 9.5% = 0.0475%

BUT since your stated probability of getting a legendary is 1 in 50 or 2%, then your total probability of getting a legendary duplicate is 2% x 9.5% = 0.19%

Which is still HIGHER than what most people have in here in getting a legendary ANY legendary.

I have to add, because I have made a mistake.

I calculated all 95 legendaries as being able to be pulled from a blue shard, since you mention SPECIFICALLY that all the pulls you do are coming from blue shard.

We know that Void champions are NOT able to be pulled from blue shard, as per Ayumilove blog, I counted there are 22 void legendaries, so that leaves 73 champions that are eligible to be pulled from blue shards.

Meaning, from the 2nd dice roll I mention on my previous post your chance of pulling a legendary duplicate from a blue shard is 9 / 73 = 12.5%

Which means if we go by the advertised probability, your total chance of getting a duplicate legendary is 0.5% x 12.5% = 0.0625%

BUT, again, as you stated that your own probability of getting a legendary is 1 in 50 or 2,% then your total chance of getting a duplicate legendary is 2% x 12.5% = 0,25%

Meaning your chance of pulling a duplicate legendary FROM A BLUE SHARD is just half of the chance of the advertised chance of pulling a legendary from a blue shard in normal conditions.

So there you go, if we go by the math it's actually a very high chance for you to pull a duplicate legendary.

If you don't know, you should believe all things Game Developer, in this case Plarium, tell you. They tell you Random, you tell others, RNG, that will make you look Pro (more pro than those can't tell that). 

Shard pull is random but actually under-control random. It looks like random but game developer also have to control the number of "Useful/S-rank" legend pulled out by players.  

Maybe it's too hard for you to understand, so I make it simple like that. The chance you got unwanted/duplicate heroes is higher than those you wanted heroes, the chance for each legend is not equal, imagine the pyramid, the chance to get unwanted is bottom pyramid, high-demand champ is top. 

Indent14 said:

If you don't know, you should believe all things Game Developer, in this case Plarium, tell you. They tell you Random, you tell others, RNG, that will make you look Pro (more pro than those can't tell that). 

Shard pull is random but actually under-control random. It looks like random but game developer also have to control the number of "Useful/S-rank" legend pulled out by players.  

Maybe it's too hard for you to understand, so I make it simple like that. The chance you got unwanted/duplicate heroes is higher than those you wanted heroes, the chance for each legend is not equal, imagine the pyramid, the chance to get unwanted is bottom pyramid, high-demand champ is top. 

You know, if you can actually provide the math of this "controlled" pull, that would be great.

Because I have been in such a game, and  the community in that game can actually proof MATHEMATICALLY that indeed certain top tier prize are more rare than the others.

I have put out my math, and it has proven OP's statement that getting duplicate legendaries are more probable than what he thinks.

Whatever you said, come from someone else. Google it, you got a tons.

Whatever I said, come from me experience. Google it, hard to find. 

Indent14 said:

Whatever you said, come from someone else. Google it, you got a tons.

Whatever I said, come from me experience. Google it, hard to find. 

You never believe, because you never know. Whatever I said you can't learn, it's your limitation. 

what I said, I proof with calculation.

what you said is baseless theory that only you can "feel"

As I said, if there was/ is a "cheat" in the probability, it can easily be found in the statistic... but since you can only say BS like that, I would assume that you have no proof whatsoever in your claim.

I have given you the tools before if you really want to proof there's a cheat or not in the pulls.

I will reiterate once again, document your pulls, get people to join you in documenting their pulls, what they get and at what condition (normal, 2x, 10x), the more people you can persuade to document their pulls with you the better. Heck I will volunteer to join the effort if you do decide to document the pulls.

once documented we can easily spot if there's a shanenigan done by Plarium.

I have joined such effort in other games as well... so do you want to keep spouting conspiracy theory or do you want to approach this scientifically?

Hi, Guys!

I'd like to remind you that every champion from the legendary, epic or rare categories has the same percentage as a champion from the same category.

It's I talk to myself, no need to reply.

"You play the game everyday, for months, years, if you still believe the chance to pull Matyr is same as Mountain King or the chance to pull Skullcrusher, Madame Serris is same as Jareg, Luthiea, Jiroh; I would say: you are no medicine to cure". 

Indent14 said:

It's I talk to myself, no need to reply.

"You play the game everyday, for months, years, if you still believe the chance to pull Matyr is same as Mountain King or the chance to pull Skullcrusher, Madame Serris is same as Jareg, Luthiea, Jiroh; I would say: you are no medicine to cure". 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observer_bias

Not replying to Indent14 post, just an addendum so anyone else who read that BS of his knows what it is in scientific term

dthompjr1987 said:

6 void legendary, 3 are duplicates. This game is such trash. Duplicates in non void are insanely common as well. No way in hell this is random

RNG problems, I have only taken 1 legendary from the void in 1 and a half years playing, others have all the best legendaries ... at least it is known that they are investigating something to do with duplicates, hopefully your duplicates will be great in a future

I'm playing for almost a year now and over that course spent a couple of hundred bucks on this one armed bandit called Raid Shadow Legends.

I have 13 Legendaries of which 7 I pulled from shards, and they are mostely garbage or very situational.

A friend of mine started a week ago. He is usually very lucky in games, so with staying free to play, he managed to pull Foli, Cupidus and Zavia from Ancient shards on top of Frozen Banshee and Miscreated Monster. Plus 3 or 4 other epics which he just fed away. He spent the gems on the ancient packs, so we are talking about 30 to 40 shards he opened so far.

So this shows me, that this pull mechanics are RNG or someone at Plarium secretly loves him.

But I doubt that, obviously they only love money, so it must be RNG.

Of course I'm happy for him that he gets such nice heroes, but as you can imagine this pisses me off and really takes the fun of the game away from me, seeing how with enough luck you can as easily progress and maybe faster, than if you spend a lot of money. Especially because there are no compensation mechanics in this game for bad luck, like in other games. And they are always saying they are looking into what to do with duplicates, but seriously, I don't expect anything like that dropping in the next years.

So this game is not even pay to win so much, ok, except for the weekly Speed set saies, but it is just a gambling machine, like a game of blackjack or poker.

dehophran said:

I'm playing for almost a year now and over that course spent a couple of hundred bucks on this one armed bandit called Raid Shadow Legends.

I have 13 Legendaries of which 7 I pulled from shards, and they are mostely garbage or very situational.

A friend of mine started a week ago. He is usually very lucky in games, so with staying free to play, he managed to pull Foli, Cupidus and Zavia from Ancient shards on top of Frozen Banshee and Miscreated Monster. Plus 3 or 4 other epics which he just fed away. He spent the gems on the ancient packs, so we are talking about 30 to 40 shards he opened so far.

So this shows me, that this pull mechanics are RNG or someone at Plarium secretly loves him.

But I doubt that, obviously they only love money, so it must be RNG.

Of course I'm happy for him that he gets such nice heroes, but as you can imagine this pisses me off and really takes the fun of the game away from me, seeing how with enough luck you can as easily progress and maybe faster, than if you spend a lot of money. Especially because there are no compensation mechanics in this game for bad luck, like in other games. And they are always saying they are looking into what to do with duplicates, but seriously, I don't expect anything like that dropping in the next years.

So this game is not even pay to win so much, ok, except for the weekly Speed set saies, but it is just a gambling machine, like a game of blackjack or poker.

Any gacha games are basically softcore gambling, anyone who has lady luck on their side will trump everyone else.

That's why knowing your basic statistics and probability is key to know how to spend if you do want to spend.

In this game I would suggest for players to spend on chasing books rather than chasing heroes.

1. How to get books in this game is more clear cut and less RNG involved.

2. The effects of the books are quite significant, I'd rather have a fully booked epic than a legendary I can't never book.

3. That is why I never really mind getting a duplicate, because that's another "book" for me, and I rate book higher than new heroes. That doesn't mean I don't rate a new hero, no, I do am happy if I'm getting a new hero, because it's a collection game and I do collect them all (at least one hero from rare and up is filling my vault)

4. Another rule of spending in a gacha game, ANY GACHA game, is to look at what's the worse possible result you can get from the pulls, and expect that you will get that, even at rate up events, ALWAYS expect the worse possible outcome.

If you can't handle getting the worse possible outcome then you should not buy with real money.

5. My personal code of spending in ANY gacha game is to reward the developer for making a good game NEVER about gambling in the pulls. If my spending get me a top tier prize, that's a bonus.

#4 and #5 is my rule about spending in ANY GACHA games, and so far it has protect me from disappointment and let me spot the games that are not made for me.

RNG is as "random" as the site developers wish it to be. 

I used to play a lot of small stakes online poker.  It was obvious that the RNG produced a higher rate of full house and 4 of a kind than would happen with real cards.  The site maintained an archive of every hand that had been dealt.  They never expected some math students at MIT to analyze it.  They found there were too many high value hands and that too many of them were going to a core group of players. 

Then some hackers got involved and tracked the "winning" accounts back to the owners of the site.  They went public and the site closed. 

I am not accusing Plarium of anything.  A mod just posted the chances are the same to pull all Legendaries.  That could explain why we see so many God level legos in the arena.  Whales buy shards and crack them.  Crack enough shards and you will eventually acquire every champion in the game.  Plarium is associated with a casino so they fully understand odds and probabilities.  They know how to dangle them to confuse many gamers.