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Possible Bug or the Worst RNG Ever

Possible Bug or the Worst RNG Ever

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May 8, 2019, 02:3405/08/19
0

Possible Bug or the Worst RNG Ever

I’m curious if anyone else has this issue:

 I am trying to farm accessories for my Dark Elf and High Elf characters. I have farmed 118 accessories and only received 4 for these characters. The odds of only getting 4 eligible accessories out of 118 rewards ( this # excludes shards and xp brews) is so remote, that it must be a bug. This means I have 114 accessories split amongst the remaining factions.  I am farming the Spiders Den for the accessories  

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Apr 5, 2020, 13:0704/05/20
11/30/19
1

My problem too! Someone suggested that odds for certain factions dropped increased for certain days of the week, to go along with faction wars or something. Dark elves is absolutely the hardest to pull accessories, and I’m over flowing with almost every other faction. 100% think spiders is rigged like that on purpose. Needs to be fixed.

Apr 5, 2020, 13:5404/05/20
12/19/19
5960
I've been trying to get a high elf banner since the beginning... only faction i cant get 1.
Apr 5, 2020, 18:2704/05/20
02/27/20
154
So is it easier to get Accessories for a specific faction on the day their Faction Crypt is open?
Apr 5, 2020, 19:5704/05/20
11/28/19
43

If the drops are distributed equally among factions, there are 13 factions, so getting any one specific faction on one specific attempt is 1/13. That would mean in 118 attempts, on average each faction would get about 9 drops assuming all drops are items. You can get brews and shards instead of gear.


If the drops are equally distributed and 118 accessories dropped, then the odds of getting exactly 4 items for one SPECIFIC faction is 1 in 730. However, the odds that any faction would get only 4 drops is much higher.


This is pretty crappy odds but they are not that astronomical. Watch the Cold Brew Gaming video where he got all rares in 50 ancient shards and 20 void shards and the void shards were double rates. I calculated the odds of that happening as around 1/3500 give or take.



Apr 6, 2020, 02:2904/06/20
03/18/20
305

yeah definitely crap, ive pumped around 3500 power if not more know chasing undead banners, I regularly get dark elf, high elf, dwarf & skin walkers


too be honest I cant even recall the last time I got a undead horde faction accessory


3500 power for basically zero return is pretty poor all I can say is luckily frozen banshee is impressive with out a banner cant wait to see the difference with one lol

Apr 6, 2020, 02:4404/06/20
Apr 6, 2020, 02:45(edited)
02/27/20
154
benpountney77 said:

yeah definitely crap, ive pumped around 3500 power if not more know chasing undead banners, I regularly get dark elf, high elf, dwarf & skin walkers


too be honest I cant even recall the last time I got a undead horde faction accessory


3500 power for basically zero return is pretty poor all I can say is luckily frozen banshee is impressive with out a banner cant wait to see the difference with one lol

I get undead accessories often.
Apr 6, 2020, 08:4304/06/20
02/20/20
236

faction unbiased: p = 13/118 = 0.11  (assuming no bias against number of champions or other factors like faction wars or existing roster/team)


What you received:   factorial(118)/(factorial(4)*factorial(118-4)) x p^4 x (1-p)^(118-4) = 0.002  You are indeed unlucky



Apr 6, 2020, 11:1804/06/20
Apr 6, 2020, 11:19(edited)
06/19/17
211

I agree you might be a bit unlucky here, but grinding/farming is about the long run. 118 wasted runs is nothing compared to what you will experience once you are later into the game. 

Imagine what you need to improve your current rooster is a specific banner. It has to be 6-star and it has to have accuracy a primary stat and it has to have speed as secondary stat. Also it has to proc speed atleast twice once you upgrade it in order to be an improvement.
Apr 6, 2020, 12:5904/06/20
12/08/19
94

Sry about that


i was grinding for months to get a accuracy banner for bannerlords...sacred order i get over 30 in this time...it wwere hundreds and hundreds of runs on spider.....its rng
Apr 6, 2020, 14:2304/06/20
04/18/19
84

It took me like... forever.

I remembered tracking 1200 energy on that.

It is not a bug, is just painful

GreenKnightCommunity Manager
Apr 7, 2020, 11:0804/07/20
Apr 7, 2020, 11:13(edited)
04/06/20
582

Greetings and salutations,

I'm here to answer some of your questions.

Unknown_Ranger said:

I’m curious if anyone else has this issue:
 I am trying to farm accessories for my Dark Elf and High Elf characters. I have farmed 118 accessories and only received 4 for these characters. The odds of only getting 4 eligible accessories out of 118 rewards ( this # excludes shards and xp brews) is so remote, that it must be a bug. This means I have 114 accessories split amongst the remaining factions. I am farming the Spiders Den for the accessories  

The rewards system in dungeons is fully randomized within the parameters of possible rewards on a particular level. Any true random system has more than average possibility of continuous strings. So what happened is you experienced one of those strings, most likely you have one or two factions that received way above the average number of accessories during farm. 

 It was just a stroke of bad luck.

shyannekuipers said:

My problem too! Someone suggested that odds for certain factions dropped increased for certain days of the week, to go along with faction wars or something. Dark elves is absolutely the hardest to pull accessories, and I’m over flowing with almost every other faction. 100% think spiders is rigged like that on purpose. Needs to be fixed.

That is an interesting suggestion. Please could you expand on the concept and post it in our suggestion-log so that we could bring it under consideration with our game development team?

Currently, we decided to keep all suggestions in one channel on our official Discord server: https://discordapp.com/invite/mYKC5J6,

to post suggestions use the !suggest command.

Victory March said:

So is it easier to get Accessories for a specific faction on the day their Faction Crypt is open?

Faction Crypt is unrelated to the game mechanic in question and does not influence item drop, or its properties.

Have a nice day :)

Apr 7, 2020, 11:2304/07/20
02/27/20
154
GreenKnight said:

Greetings and salutations,

I'm here to answer some of your questions.

Unknown_Ranger said:

I’m curious if anyone else has this issue:
 I am trying to farm accessories for my Dark Elf and High Elf characters. I have farmed 118 accessories and only received 4 for these characters. The odds of only getting 4 eligible accessories out of 118 rewards ( this # excludes shards and xp brews) is so remote, that it must be a bug. This means I have 114 accessories split amongst the remaining factions. I am farming the Spiders Den for the accessories  

The rewards system in dungeons is fully randomized within the parameters of possible rewards on a particular level. Any true random system has more than average possibility of continuous strings. So what happened is you experienced one of those strings, most likely you have one or two factions that received way above the average number of accessories during farm. 

 It was just a stroke of bad luck.

shyannekuipers said:

My problem too! Someone suggested that odds for certain factions dropped increased for certain days of the week, to go along with faction wars or something. Dark elves is absolutely the hardest to pull accessories, and I’m over flowing with almost every other faction. 100% think spiders is rigged like that on purpose. Needs to be fixed.

That is an interesting suggestion. Please could you expand on the concept and post it in our suggestion-log so that we could bring it under consideration with our game development team?

Currently, we decided to keep all suggestions in one channel on our official Discord server: https://discordapp.com/invite/mYKC5J6,

to post suggestions use the !suggest command.

Victory March said:

So is it easier to get Accessories for a specific faction on the day their Faction Crypt is open?

Faction Crypt is unrelated to the game mechanic in question and does not influence item drop, or its properties.

Have a nice day :)

I was kinda thinking that it wasn't true about the Faction Crypts, but someone mentioned it, so I wanted to make sure.  Also, "you must verify your identity by phone before you can send messages in this server" on Discord.  Why?  (I just signed up for Discord and checked out the suggestions-log tab.)
Jun 30, 2020, 14:2406/30/20
05/18/20
5

Same here, after hundreds of battles, I'm getting banners for all factions, but my main. No statistical explanation at all. With 13 factions, and 3 types of artifact for faction, we have a total of 39 types of artifacts. If we consider the three mugs, we have 42 possible outcomes, that is a probability of getting a particular item of 2.4%. The probability of getting zero particular items after 300 plays (and I'm quite sure I played more than that) is a stunning 0.0624%. But here we are anyway.
I'm really getting tired of being fooled around by these guys...


Jun 30, 2020, 14:4406/30/20
12/19/19
5960
Yako966 said:

Same here, after hundreds of battles, I'm getting banners for all factions, but my main. No statistical explanation at all. With 13 factions, and 3 types of artifact for faction, we have a total of 39 types of artifacts. If we consider the three mugs, we have 42 possible outcomes, that is a probability of getting a particular item of 2.4%. The probability of getting zero particular items after 300 plays (and I'm quite sure I played more than that) is a stunning 0.0624%. But here we are anyway.
I'm really getting tired of being fooled around by these guys...


Math Fail ^^^
Jul 1, 2020, 03:1407/01/20
05/18/20
5

Binomial distribution: X~B(300, 1/42). P(x=0) = 300!/[0!*(300-0)!]*(1/42)^0*(1-1/42)^(300-0) = 1*1*0.976^300 = 0.000684 =~ 0.0684%


Math is a not an opinion.



Trips said:

Yako966 said:


Same here, after hundreds of battles, I'm getting banners for all factions, but my main. No statistical explanation at all. With 13 factions, and 3 types of artifact for faction, we have a total of 39 types of artifacts. If we consider the three mugs, we have 42 possible outcomes, that is a probability of getting a particular item of 2.4%. The probability of getting zero particular items after 300 plays (and I'm quite sure I played more than that) is a stunning 0.0624%. But here we are anyway.
I'm really getting tired of being fooled around by these guys...


Math Fail ^^^