Prizes : Immortals Method - by Silk

2 Replies
Alyona Kolomiitseva
Community Manager
21 February, 2017, 3:12 PM UTC

Do you need to reduce your losses against low to mid level Lighthouse Prizes - especially during Global Missions? How many Marauders/ Bonnies do you send? How many survive? What Percentage losses do you incur?


If you are losing more than half of your marauders then it is unsafe to send any ships or other expensive units.

The first step is to reduce your casualties to fewer than 50% by adding a few Buccaneers/Skirmishers and Mercenaries.

Once you are confident that half of your Marauders (or Bonnies) are certain to survive then you can start adding one of each ship type [Jugg, SoL, Frig and Brig] (normal, veteran, brethren and pardoned are also counted as different ship types)


Let's start with this easy example - http://prntscr.com/4jp00o

For the lowest level Prizes it should be perfectly safe to send one of each unit type and expect no losses. This works well up to level 10, and will work perfectly up to level 16 depending on how many different Veteran, Brethren and Pardoned unit types you have and if you own Dread Units. I can now defeat level 23 Black Corsairs with zero losses.

Obviously, Defensive Prizes are much more difficult to defeat, so send lots of bonnies, skirmishers etc.


Casualties from Prizes are calculated as a percentage - You will always lose the same percentage of each unit type.

The Unit percentage loss is always rounded up or down, so losing more than half a ship will cause it to sink. Less than half and it will always survive - This is the key

The percentage is taken from the strength of the enemy divided by your strength, [but multiplied by 2.5 because we need to kill 100% of Spanish units].


The exact formula remains unknown, so allow a safety margin to avoid total disaster. - http://prntscr.com/5ii64y - This unhappy pirate should have sent 15,280 x 2.5 (1528 Prize Ranking x 10 = 15280 defense x 2.5 = 38,200 minimum strength)



Examine this screenshot - http://prntscr.com/2tdw8i + http://prntscr.com/2tdvfm


Please note that every ship, dread unit and other solitary units became Immortal, only the Marauders suffered losses (13 of 55)

This is because the Spanish are heavily outgunned. The total percentage losses are well below half.

13/55=23.64%


Once you know that you can safely send ONE of each ship type (and Dread Fleet) then you might want to experiment with adding more.


Prize Strength expected


More than 50% then no ships are safe

Below 50% then one ship/unit of each type are safe

Below 25% then two ships

Below 16% then three ships

Below 12% then four ships

Below 10% then five ships

Below 8% then six ships

Below 7% then seven ships

Below 6% then eight ships

Below 5.5% then nine ships

Below 5% then ten ships

Below 4.5% then eleven ships

Below 4% then twelve ships

Below 3.75% then thirteen ships

Below 3.5% then 14 ships

Below 3.3% then 15 ships

Below 3% then 16 ships

Below 2.5% then 20 ships etc etc


I normally aim below 10% losses so usually send 5 of every other unit type - I occasionally add extra Frigates and Brigs (up to 15 of each) expecting to deliberately lose one of each. These losses stack from one prize to the next and add to the quality and frequency of my rewards from prizes. I normally expect a reward after every 4 or 5 prizes. Rewards are based on the resource value of sacrificed units - you will need to sacrifice a lot of cannon-fodder to get the best rewards, but this is a bad tactic during Global events, when we need to complete 12 or more of our best prizes every day.



http://prntscr.com/3mh8o1 + http://prntscr.com/3mh9r1 .... Level 18 Black Corsair, lost 25 of 300 Marauders (less than 10%)


With higher level Prizes it is always a good idea to send waves of 100 Marauders or 200 Bonnies first to weaken the Prizes - There is no time limit, send 2 or 3 waves and then send your main force - Good Luck

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Alyona Kolomiitseva
Community Manager
21 February, 2017, 3:12 PM UTC

Comment by KDH:

I will confirm that prize rewards have changed. You now must lose troops or your only reward is a potion. The more value of the troops you lose between rewards and the higher the prize level you score a reward on then the better the reward.

 

 When the deployment glitch hit and I lost 1 of each veteran and dread unit because I relied on the game's calculated value when sending my troops I received a troop reward bonus on the next 5 prizes in a row. You can spend months not losing any troops by keeping them all "immortal" but you won't get a single troop back for a reward on the prizes→only potions.

Silk has given you all the key to figuring out battle. I'll give some more tips for you to consider.

 

Both Defensive and Offensive prizes of the same level have the same strength variance. Meaning you can expect a level 14 prize to contain between 5,000 and 6,500 points of power no matter if it is offensive or defensive.

 

If you send a single bonnie at a defensive prize you can add up the offensive power of all the units shown. This well tell you the strength of that individual prize. Record this number for many prizes in that level you will get the idea of the power represented in that prize level. Then you can apply the math to calculate your losses.

 

 Remember:(Your Power) is the Offensive Power for Attack OR Defensive Power for Reinforcement

 

Loss Percentage Formula: (Prize Power) ÷ (Your Power) = (Loss Percentage)

 

Use the largest known value for each prize level so a level 14 prize would look like this:

 (6500) ÷ (160,000) = (0.04625)

 

0.04625 is your loss percent....4.625%...any unit you send 10 or less of should be safe.

 

→ I would send 9 "immortals" or more power (170k). I have pushed it close to the limit and seen losses. ←

 I go for a 0.038 loss rating→ 3.8% with my 10 squads

 

Hit a level 14 prize with 6,500 power and expect pretty much 99% losses if it was full strength. Hit it with 5,000 points you might not even win if it was a strong enough.

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Alyona Kolomiitseva
Community Manager
21 February, 2017, 3:13 PM UTC

Comment by Matr:

I believe the correct calculation for win/loss is Prize force force divided by the total of your troops Plus the the prize troops. So for the example above the calculation is: 6500/(160,000+6500) = 0.039 It doesn't make much difference in this example because the attack force is overwhelming.

Consider this: This is the formula for regular fights: Prizes work differently- on prizes anything less than the total prize force you lose all your troops.

A= Attack Force D= Defense force Winning % for attacker= A/ (A+D) If greater than 50% attacker wins, Troop Loss % for attacker is 1- A/(A+D)

5100 raid force vs 5000 defender force>> 5100/(5100+5000) = 0.505 - or 50.5% you win the battle and lose 1-.505 = 49.5% of your troops - less that a half a troops so any troops types you only sent one of are Immortal.

4900 vs 5000 >> 4900/(4900+5000) = 0.495 or 49.5% you lose the battle and your loss is 1-.495=.505 slightly more than half a troop - you lose one of everything you sent one of.

I tracked the first 50 prize force levels on several hundred prize missions recording the forces at each level - based on this I developed an estimate of the troop force for every prize level: I determined that a cubic equation best fit the data and correlates nicely. This calculate the AVERAGE prize force so to use it I suggest using 1 level higher than the prize you are working. This estimate does not take into account any bonuses the prize forces may have - I have assumed for my prize work that all prize forces have a 40% bonus.

Prize force estimate = 2.25 * level cubed

Using these estimates and the IMMORTAL methods above I have successfully completed level 19 offense prizes and Level 15 defense prizes with one shot and no losses - I have also on occasion lost one of every troops sent - tis a painful learning experience.

Here is a link to a brotherhood that has posted the prize force levels for each. http://roguesbh.weebly.com/lighthouse.html

Their numbers pretty much match what I have and what the estimator provides.

1/31 update: My theory on Prizes

Prizes use the same basic formula as regular fights with one change - your loss % is doubled.

P= Price Force R=Raid Force

Prize % loss = 2x(P/(P+R))

Using this formula results of various raid forces versus a fixed prize force are in this table:

Prizes VS Raid Force Results

Note: Any raid forces less than the prize force results in 100% loss of your troops.

It takes 3 times the prize force to make single unit type raid forces immortal. IE 1 of each troop type - no loss, it takes 7 times the prize force to make 2 each raid forces immortal

Examples:

Level 6 Prize force =440 Level 6 prize force

Results: Raid force = 1000 Win the prize but lose 1 of everything: 1000 Raid vs 440 Prize

Level 2 Sea Fort Force = 120 Level 2 Sea Fort

Results: Raid force = 383 Raid Force 383.6 Prize % Loss=2*(120/(120+383))=2*(120/503)= 0.477 >> 47.7% loss just under 1 troop - WIN L2 Sea Fort Win Just over 3 times prize force

Level 6 Black Corsair force=510 Note: Prize force can only be determined after the attack on offensive prizes

Results: Raid Force =5468 two of each type - shooting for a minimum of 7 times the next higher prize: Raid Force Lvl 6 Blk Corsair Prize % loss = 2*(510/(510+5468))=17.1% two x two is safe below 25% >> WIN Level 6 Win no losses

Regular Raid using techniques described:

Defensive force =1880 Offense Regular Prize Raid Force of 6550>> %loss = 1880/(1880+6550)= 22.3 % this was enough to be safe for two of each troop but not three

Results: WIN no losses except 1 of each of the bucs because three each were sent to show what happens: Regular Raid Result 1880 vs 6550

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